UncleMo Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 I'm reading Moneyball. I noticed that Nick Swisher was mentioned in the book and that Beane LOVED the kid when he was in the minors. So I go and look at his MLB stats to see what he had. Then these qeustions came to my mind that I need help with: Question 1: For .OBP AND for .SLG, what numbers are a good number to try to have? Like, we say 100 RBI (or more) is the figure you want to get at. For homers, we say roughly 30. So what figure is for .OBP and .SLG that you'd look for in a player these days? Question 2: What is OPS? (What is it for, what does it tell us? What is a good number to have?) Question 3: How is it that .OBP & .SLG matter now and not in the past. How is it that we've been seeing these stats and no one paid them any attention. Someone had to know they were important BEFORE Beane came along, so how is it that they've printed them in stat lines but everyone ignored them. Let me hear your theory. Thank you, Uncle Mo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stecropper Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 UncleMo --- On Base Percentage & Slugging Percentage has been around as long and longer than I have and that's from the '50s. They have always been a very meaning stat for baseball. In particular to decide your leadoff and middle lineup batting orders. As far as OPS: What is OPS? By Rob Neyer OPS is simply on-base percentage plus slugging percentage, and it's an excellent shorthand measure of a player's most important offensive skills. Here are the top 10 OPS men (minimum 1,000 games), through August 30, 1999: 1. Babe Ruth 1.163 2. Ted Williams 1.116 3. Lou Gehrig 1.080 4. Jimmie Foxx 1.038 5. Hank Greenberg 1.017 6. Frank Thomas 1.014 7. Rogers Hornsby 1.010 8. Mickey Mantle .979 9. Mark McGwire .978 10. Joe DiMaggio .977 10. Stan Musial .977 This list pretty much speaks for itself. Barry Bonds, who ranks with Frank Thomas among the greatest hitters of this or any other era, is 12th on the all-time list with a .970 OPS. P.S. Astute readers have suggested that on-base times slugging is a better tool. And to be sure, it is slightly more accurate in terms of predicting variance in run production. But the difference is quite small, and in my mind isn't worth the extra complexity involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UncleMo Posted October 13, 2005 Author Share Posted October 13, 2005 Ok. Thanks for addressing that question. What is a good cutoff number to have for either of the 3 stats? In your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwinginSoriano Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 OPS: OBP + SLG The real argument is, are they equally important? Can a stat be made that would show the importance of OBP compared to SLG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UncleMo Posted October 13, 2005 Author Share Posted October 13, 2005 In your sig you say .309 is a bad OBP. But what is a good number to have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krawhitham Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 .400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UncleMo Posted October 13, 2005 Author Share Posted October 13, 2005 After review Billy Beane type of players I didn't see any with the number of .400, are you sure that is not a bit too high for OBP? Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krawhitham Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 you asked for a good OBP% .400 puts you in the top 10 in baseball #1 sits at .445 #40 sits at .367 some where inbetween I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFletch Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 I'm reading Moneyball. I noticed that Nick Swisher was mentioned in the book and that Beane LOVED the kid when he was in the minors. So I go and look at his MLB stats to see what he had. Then these qeustions came to my mind that I need help with: Question 1: For .OBP AND for .SLG, what numbers are a good number to try to have? Like, we say 100 RBI (or more) is the figure you want to get at. For homers, we say roughly 30. So what figure is for .OBP and .SLG that you'd look for in a player these days? Question 2: What is OPS? (What is it for, what does it tell us? What is a good number to have?) Question 3: How is it that .OBP & .SLG matter now and not in the past. How is it that we've been seeing these stats and no one paid them any attention. Someone had to know they were important BEFORE Beane came along, so how is it that they've printed them in stat lines but everyone ignored them. Let me hear your theory. Thank you, Uncle Mo. Nice to see I'm not the only one currently reading Moneyball. I just finished the Howard Bryant book "Juiced" and a friend recommended Moneyball as I've always been a stat junkie and was curious about the origin of STATS Inc. So far I've really enjoyed the book as it's given insight as to how MLB has been truely managed over the past 50 years. The setup for the OBP + Slugging section leads well into how the hell the A's were to replace Jason Giambi. ("The run producing machine") Another stat worth mentioning in the book that goes along with OPS is the avg. number of pitches seen per AB. Having a hitter who sees a lot of pitches makes the hitter behind him much more dangerous. - Fletch "Cuz you know players are lookin for big money free agent deals despite hitting behind Bonds" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UncleMo Posted October 14, 2005 Author Share Posted October 14, 2005 Thank you to all who anwered. This book is getting better and better the more I read it, and I HATE MATH. I'm beginning to understand why people read into statistics so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwinginSoriano Posted October 14, 2005 Share Posted October 14, 2005 .400 You're right. .400 is the magic number alike .300 being a magic number for a batting average. Few can obtain .400 but of course that's the goal, a guy with that OBP is a GOOD player. There are very few players that don't walk that can be considered good. (Like Garret Anderson or Alfonso Soriano) The lack of walks can make these good players more inconsistant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mooseknucks Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 OPS is the combination of SLG and OBP. Your OPS is considered good when it breaks 1.000 and in some cases, higher than .980 For OBP, I get happy when I see .400, and apparently others do as well. For SLG, seeing over .600 makes me think twice. And what do you know, .600(SLG) + .400(OBP) = 1.000(OPS)! :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gcurrier2004 Posted October 24, 2005 Share Posted October 24, 2005 After review Billy Beane type of players I didn't see any with the number of .400, are you sure that is not a bit too high for OBP? Seriously. because alot of teams are moving the the "moneyball" type players, its harder to get the guys with the good OBP........ Beane used to have his pick at them, but with all of the teams adopting the smart way of baseball its alot harder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sean O Posted October 24, 2005 Share Posted October 24, 2005 .400 is an excellent OBP, something around .380 is probably closer to .300. .360 is roughly equivalent to .280. Beane doesn't necessarily need everyone to be at .400 OBP, what he needs is the highest OBP per $. This year Jason Giambi may have had an extremely high OBP, but for $15 million it's not the best result. Also, coventional moneyball wisdom now states that OPS is more important than OBP, and Beane has many players over .700 in that regard. And, in response to dan's post above, an OPS of 1.0 is extraordinary, as only 5 players in the MLB had an OPS that high. One over .800 is very good, .900 is excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UncleMo Posted October 24, 2005 Author Share Posted October 24, 2005 thank you so much sean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snailman Posted October 24, 2005 Share Posted October 24, 2005 If you're looking for more information about statistics and their history and importance in baseball, you should read The Numbers Game. I found it just as entertaining as Moneyball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jg2977 Posted October 24, 2005 Share Posted October 24, 2005 I just ordered my copy of Moneyball from Amazon for only $11. I'll have to try The Numbers Game sometime also. By the way, what are the "magic stats" that Moneyballers use for pitchers? I've heard quite a bit about ERA+ and strikeout rates. What are the other ones that are important? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sean O Posted October 24, 2005 Share Posted October 24, 2005 ERA+ is what I go by, so ERA+ for pitchers and OPS+ for batters. Then the catch-all for players is WARP, or wins above replacement, which factors in defense, hitting, and pitching. So Chris Carpenter had a 7.7 WARP, but Dontrelle Willis had a WARP of 11.1 because D-train hit with a .228 EqA while Carpenter hit a hilarious -.088 EqA. While I'm mentioning it, EqA is what you should be looking at, never BA, because it's league-, park-, pitching- and baserunning-adjusted. So Robinson Cano hit .297 this season, but only .262 EqA which is barely above average, while Troy Glaus had a .258 average, but a .292 EqA. By BA alone, Cano is a vastly better hitter, but with EqA, you can see how much more valuable Glaus is. For pitchers, the most important things in order: ERA+ (the catch all) WARP k:bb (strike out to BB ratio) k/9 bb/9 hr/9 g:fb BABIP (BA of balls in play) The jury is still out on DIPS, or Defense-Independent Pitching, created by Voros McCracken, since some pitchers do have more control over where balls in play go. Derek Lowe, during his near-Cy season, had a ridiculously low BABIP because his sinker caused everyone to just pound the ball into the ground. But in general, the less a pitcher puts the ball in play, the better. ERA+ and OPS+ is on baseballreference.com, WARP is on baseballprospectus.com, along with EqA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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