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Gagne or Rivera?


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this is an article that was on ESPN.com...

Gagne or Mariano? What a question. We started out trying to poll hitters on this topic. Bad idea. Because it quickly became clear, three players into the survey, that hitters would rather have periodontic surgery than face either one of them. Ever.

Phillies quote machine Doug Glanville summed up the feelings of hitters everywhere, saying: "That's like comparing whether you'd like to be swallowed whole by an anaconda or thrown into a pit with black widow spiders. It just depends on where your allergies lie."

So if the hitters weren't going to help us, we went to Plan B -- and asked nine scouts. The results might amaze you, considering that Rivera is the greatest October closer of all time and isn't exactly falling apart (leading the league with 27 saves, and a 0.96 ERA). But Gagne won in a landslide, collecting eight of nine votes.

Among the reasons: "Rivera's cutter is legendary, but Gagne has three pitches he makes the best hitters in baseball look silly with." ... "If you'd asked me five years ago, I'd have taken Mariano, but today, it's Gagne. More weapons." ... "Bugs Bunny stuff." ... "He has a 94-97 mph fastball with good command, a 70-74 mph downer curve ball with huge speed change from his fastball and then the 84-87 mph nasty change that dives like the best split in the league. Fifteen hits all year. Three walks since May 1. Pitches with no runners on. And it all adds up to no chance."

The panel acknowledged that Rivera has carved a fabulous career out of throwing one pitch -- and the hitters still haven't figured out how to hit it. And the lone scout voting for Rivera said that even though Gagne is younger, he would bet on Rivera to pitch longer "because of the looseness of his arm." But it's hard to argue with 81 saves in a row. In fact, it's just about impossible.

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Haha good read.

If it were my team I would want Gagne, mainly because of Canadian pride though.

They are both outstanding pitchers and a hitter's worst nightmare.

I've never seen Gagne win a World Series though.

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Definately Gagne is better, 81 straight saves in a row says it all. It seems like the only hitter to figure him out was Hank Blalock last year in the all star game, good thing that doesn't count toward stats!

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I've never seen Gagne win a World Series though.

I've seen this thread elsewhere, and it seems that's a common argument against Gagne. I know Nick was just throwing that comment out there, neither for nor against, but here's my retort.

Both pitchers are phenomenal. But picking Rivera over Gagne simply because of World Series rings is like picking Franklin Stubbs, with one WS ring over Don Mattingly, who has none.

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That's a good point. However I should have clarified that I meant it rather as a compliment to Mariano's outstanding play in October as opposed to a knock on Gagne's lack there of (being on the Dodgers). Gagne is obviously unbelievable in the regular season but can anybody get it done like Mariano has done in the post-season? ... ah, well hopefully Gagne can one day show us.

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good point brought up on sunday night baseball (and many other places im sure) that ill throw about there....

is gagne wasted at the dodgers?... there was a period where he only pitched 3 innings in 27 matches because save situations didnt arise either through big leads or LA being behind...

if Gagne can simply shut down a team for 1-2 innings with ease... wouldnt he be of amazing use to the dodgers from the 8th inning in tied games or games where their behind by one giving the offense a great chance to win if they can get on base...

it might even work against opponents mentally... who would start to get stressed in the 7th inning knowing it may be their last chance to get runs if gagne is on 8th inning duty...

however, downside may be that gagne's stamina wouldnt be as great and the more he pitches the more he'll get found out...

but whats people's take on this?

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I think falls into the whole real of of the use of the closer in general, and how in a lot of situations, closers are wasted.

The closer is best reliever on your team, right?

So you want him against the other teams best players, at the tightest time.

When the game is tied, when you are up by 1, even if you are down by one.

And if hitters 6, 7 and 8 are coming up in the 9th, but 3, 4 and 5 in the 8th and you are tied or leading, wouldn't you much rathar have your closer step in during the 8th (or even push that all back an inning) so he can face their best players and shut them down?

Baseball Prospectus has had some interesting articles on the whole situation, and it makes a lot of sense to me.

And closers get way too much money. If your going to pay them crazy amounts, then use them when they are most needed, against the best players on the other team!

[Which brings up another point, why the hell do relievers ask for some much damn money in MVP 2004? It's insane!]

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And let me tell you, I was SHOCKED when Joe Morgan said what he did on Sunday Night Baseball about Gagne, after reading so many articles about it on Baseball Prospectus!

I guess my view of Joe Morgan is tainted by his comments about things like Moneyball and the like, so I was very surprised to hear him say something like that.

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2 things i can think of that may equate to higher releiver salary:

1: low supply of really top rate closers... therefore demand is higher

2: as opposed to starters, they really affect over 100 games a year if used.... maybe close to 120

thats a good point about the 3/4/5 lineup vs the 6/7/8 or whatever, i never really paid much attention to that in my dynasty and if i have the 2/3/4 coming up in the 8th i think ill start warming up my closer... if he gets through the inning fine he might still have the stamina to finish the game off

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I guess my view of Joe Morgan is tainted by his comments about things like Moneyball and the like, so I was very surprised to hear him say something like that.

what you mean?

im in the UK and only got into baseball this season, so i dont know the history of any of the commentator's viewpoints... but i follow SNB's as thats the only live feed we get over here... whats the whole moneyball thing etc?

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Gagne is a stud... but he has 81 in a row because he DOESNT get many save opps. If he pitched for a contender(like Mo) then there is a signficantly higher chance of him not being able to get so many consecutive saves. But bottom line is this; i dont wanna face either. They are both great and scary and Im glad that I'm a pitcher and will be playing in the AL(hopefully)

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gange is a better choice i think he comes in alot in the 8th inning against the best hitters and shuts them down

funny because the argument people should have against Gagne is that he doesnt come in and pitch in the 8th inning often enough...the inning where games are often decided. You would think with a pitcher like him, the manger would put him in tight spots more often... to shorten the game a little against the opposing team so to speak. Did a little research from yahoo and found that only 5 of his 18 saves this year are 4 out saves. If you do a more in depth research you would find the number of inherited runners between Rivera and Gagne for the last 2-3 years are not even close. No knock on Gagne, its just that he pitches with the bases empty most of the time and that makes his streak less impressive as it appears.

And compare that to Rivera's playoffs performance throughout the years... all those 6-out saves... i would take Rivera into a playoff series any day of the week.

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Here's the article, and in it is a breakdown of when your best pitcher can make the most difference in a game:

Baseball Prospectus

that article and some of the others on the site (ie: good mistake hitter means theyll choke in the playoffs) are great reads... ill have to bookmark that site, who knows, it might even rub off and put me a few games above .500 on my dynasty :)

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A lot of good articles for sure!

Actually one of the latest ones was them basically saying how the only way to truly evaluate players is to mix the numbers with the scouting judgements.

They basically admitted that while a lot of what they do is numbers based, that those systems have their faults and can be just as biased as scouting by look or feel can be.

They went on to name a lot of high OBP guys, that were blown up to be the next big thing by themselves and the whole 'Moneyball' phase, but who showed that OBP alone will not get you a Major League job.

(ie, Jeremy Giambi)

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They went on to name a lot of high OBP guys, that were blown up to be the next big thing by themselves and the whole 'Moneyball' phase, but who showed that OBP alone will not get you a Major League job.

(ie, Jeremy Giambi)

yea... for me personally... if i were to just use figures for picking guys it would be

1-3 (on the lineup): on base %

4-6: slugging% (assuming the batting % is reasonable, .300ish or above)

7-9: simply batting average, cant expect much from these guys... if they come to the plate with guys on base then any hit is gravy

although to be honest... id take a shortstop batting under.150 if he was a golden glove guy who saved many base hits throughout the season and therefore earned his fair share of team runs that way :D

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