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Allan Roth's Baseball Equation


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I just picked up a great book called "The Numbers Game: Baseball's lifelong fascination with statistics" by Alan Schwarz. I'm hooked, it's really great. So, one of the people mentioned is Allan Roth, a "baseball statistician" who worked for Branch Rickey and the dodgers. He invented a "grand-unifying theory of baseball", which supposedly measures a baseball team's worth. Here's the theory:

statroth005.jpg

(pardon the lopsidedness, i scanned it from the book.)

So, I'm interested in this. I'm going to put the Yankees and Detroit's stats into this, and see who comes out on top. wish me luck.

actually, i just noticed that i'm not sure what HP, HB and F stand for. i'm guessing that F stand for fielding percentage, but i'm not sure. anybody know please? thanks.

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well, the closest thing is fielding percentage, and if not that i'm sure it has something to do with fielding - i'll leave it out for now, but then maybe make it fielding percentage if the total comes to something i can subtract it from.

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hmmm, i guess it won't work... ESPECIALLY BECAUSE ALL THE STAT SITES I WENT TO DIDN'T EVEN HAVE A FREAKING OPPOSING BATTER'S AVERAGE STATISITC! but now i see that that's not what the number is used for. it would've been hard to do it anyway. Now that I look at it, the book doesn't really say what the equation is used for anyway. However, that article - or rather essay - you gave me (which looks good, by the way) says that Branch Rickey made all of this stuff up. No, it was Allan Roth his assistant. Rickey was not smart enough to suddenly come up with equations like this.

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hmmm, i guess it won't work... ESPECIALLY BECAUSE ALL THE STAT SITES I WENT TO DIDN'T EVEN HAVE A FREAKING OPPOSING BATTER'S AVERAGE STATISITC! but now i see that that's not what the number is used for. it would've been hard to do it anyway. Now that I look at it, the book doesn't really say what the equation is used for anyway. However, that article - or rather essay - you gave me (which looks good, by the way) says that Branch Rickey made all of this stuff up. No, it was Allan Roth his assistant. Rickey was not smart enough to suddenly come up with equations like this.

On espn.com go to a player's page. Press the stats tab. It's on Miscellaneous Pitching under AVG.

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Well, to be fair, in the introduction of the essay it says:

Rickey’s analysis is quite interesting. It is probably largely due to Allan Roth,

whom he mentions in the article. Rickey and Roth were not statisticians, and they took their figures “to mathematicians at a famous research institute†(p. 79) (alas, Princeton, notYale). They got their results back in six weeks, “which constituted a framework around which to build a formulaâ€

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hey, this is kind of random, but i just noticed i have a modder badge! thank you so much to whoever did that! i have achieved my ultimate goal for now. i feel so happy. i think i'll buy myself a car.

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hey, this is kind of random, but i just noticed i have a modder badge! thank you so much to whoever did that! i have achieved my ultimate goal for now. i feel so happy. i think i'll buy myself a car.

What mods have you done besides the CTS screens?

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errr... none. yet. however, that's not the only things i CAN do. i've been trying to do some other stuff (jerseys, faces, a .loc file) but none of it has the quality worth uploading it onto the site. however, i have been working on that .loc file, i came across this mod, but it was never continued, so i'm going to branch out on that idea, completely re-do the scouting reports, change some labels around, etc.

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