paulw Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 Well, as you probably can tell from my other post, I'm really getting into doing some additional work on the '56 Mod. I've been able to get some really nice split (L/R) numbers and am making adjustments to all of the players. I've also been studying lineups and lineup tendencies. Going through those old box scores on retrosheet is a real delight! I'm basically doing this for myself but if anyone is interested I'd be more than willing to share this as an "upgrade" to the '56 Season Mod. Jim, maybe when I finish all I'm doing I could send this to you and have you post it as an update(???). I've also been doing some work on some more of the ballparks to adapt them to '56. I've got a real nice Cleveland Municipal to go with the already released Fenway and Shibe/Connie Mack Stadium. This would be in the release also. The one thing I *don't* want to do is offend anyone by doing all this work and then releasing it. The intial stuff done on this mod in regards to player ratings and stuff was fantastic. I'm just incredibly anal and really enjoy tinkering with the numbers. If anyone has any feelings on this please let me know. I'm even trying to tackle - in my own way - the mystery of fielding statistics. I'm adapting some of Bill Jame's formulas to get some arm and range data. I also want to study batting stances a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardcoreLegend Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 paul, if you release this stuff without asking I will never speak to you again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim825 Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 Paul - I would LOVE to get all of this and include it in another '56 mod update! Now that the split information is on retrosheet.org, I was planning to update the lineups at some point but since you've done all the legwork, I won't have to. Let me know when you have something ready to release and I'll take a look. Have you run sims on your rosters to compare the results (and league leaders) with the actual results from 1956? The sims I had run on the original rosters released with the mod were pretty similar to the actual 1956 results. I'm also excited to hear that you've got another stadium ready to go. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulw Posted February 24, 2008 Author Share Posted February 24, 2008 How do I run a sim? This sounds like fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardcoreLegend Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 How do I run a sim? This sounds like fun. Just load up your rosters into MVP 1956 and then just sim to the end of the season, checking the year end stats. Basically, select the last day of the season on the calendar and then 'Sim up to this game'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulw Posted February 24, 2008 Author Share Posted February 24, 2008 Thanks, HCL!! I can't wait to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim825 Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 How do I run a sim? This sounds like fun. Start the game and select dynasty mode. Select "Schedule" on the menu and then go to the last day of the season and click on the date. Select the "Sim all games including this day" and away it goes. It will stop on the day of the All Star Game, however, you just click continue and it will go to the end of the season. Once the season completes and you are back on the main Dynasty menu, you can click on the Season Wrapup to get final standings, league leaders, and award winners (MVP, Cy Young, etc.). If you want to see this information, make sure that you do it BEFORE you sim the playoffs. Otherwise, you can't get to the information. If your team did well enough, you can then continue onto the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulw Posted February 24, 2008 Author Share Posted February 24, 2008 Is there anything I should back up before I do this? Will it change my rosters - for example - if someone gets hurt. Maybe there aren't any injuries?? I think I'll just copy my entire MVP folder to a backup before I do this. It can't hurt. Jim - I've really got a *lot* of work done on this already. Now I can see how the validity of the data works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim825 Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 Is there anything I should back up before I do this? Will it change my rosters - for example - if someone gets hurt. Maybe there aren't any injuries?? I think I'll just copy my entire MVP folder to a backup before I do this. It can't hurt. Jim - I've really got a *lot* of work done on this already. Now I can see how the validity of the data works out. When you configure the dynasty, turn off injuries and trades. I also turn off "energy" effects as well. They dynasty won't do anything to your rosters at all. It creates a dynasty file that takes a snapshot of your rosters and any "changes" (trades, callups, etc.) are done to the dynasty file and not your actual rosters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulw Posted February 29, 2008 Author Share Posted February 29, 2008 I just had the chance to run a first sim. Everything seemed to turn out fine. The Dodgers and Yankees had the best records, Necombe and Ford won the CY Young. Adcock's 38 homers led both leagues. One strange thing - Eddie Yost of Washington hit .331 (huh!). Probably a fluke but I'm going to rerun this a number of times. I'm now adjusting all the L/R splits based seperately for both power and contact. I'm probably a couple of weeks away on this yet. I was very interested in the Gold glove awards as I'm really working on fielding ratings. These all seemed to look very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stecropper Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 PaulW, That is a good report and sounds as though what you are doing will aid in the realism of this and other mods that you undertake making these split adjustments. I for one am very interested in / appreciative of what you are doing and anxiously await your final cut. Anything that makes these great seasons better is what I think we are all wanting. Thanks, Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulw Posted March 1, 2008 Author Share Posted March 1, 2008 One thing that I seemed to find out is that strikeouts and batting average are very highly correlated in MVP (something I kind of knew already). More importantly, you can't control strikeouts much when working with plate discipline, chase and miss. Contact rating is basically what controls strikeouts - and batting average. As an example I had Nellie Fox originally with a Plate Discipline of 4 (he walked only 44 times in about 700 plate appearances) and very low chase and miss rates. He walked about the right number of times in my sim but struck out over 100. I changed his discipline to 14 and he walked around 90 or so times but still struck out at a 100 plus rate. This seems to be a flaw in the MVP model that I don't think there's much of a work around for. The kind of guys who I thought would be hardest to capture were players with both high walk and strikeout totals - guys like Mantle and Doby. Their walk and K numbers turn out almost perfect when I run a Sim. The hardest players to capture accurate ratings for are those who strike out at a very low rate but don't hit at a particulary high batting average. You just can't make it work as far as I can tell. If anyone has any thoughts on this please let me know. I think I'm getting a fairly decent feel of what the model is and what you can do with it. This would make a fascinating statistical study but is not something I want to get too deeply into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexTony Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Good stuff Paul It will just keep getting better. I wonder if anything can be done with players like N.Fox? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulw Posted March 11, 2008 Author Share Posted March 11, 2008 Sorry it took so long to respond Tony. I've been running a lot of simulated seasons and tweaking some values. I thnk I'm getting real close now as I ran my latest couple of tests. Here's the stats from my last one (this is too good to be true and probably very lucky on my part). STANDINGS American New York 94-60 Chicago 90-64 Cleveland 88-66 Baltimore 84-70 (oops) Boston 82-72 Detroit 80-74 Washington 56-98 Kansas City 42-112 (they usually do a little better - this is a record) National Cincinnati 88-66 Brooklyn 87-67 Milwaukee 86-68 (Same 3 teams as '56 with same 2 game difference) Philadelphia 81-73 New York 75-79 St. Louis 73-81 Pittsburgh 65-89 Chicago 61-93 MVP's: Mantle and Snider (most typical although T. Williams wins his share) Cy Young's: Score and Maglie (usually Ford and Newcombe) LEADERS Homeruns AL Mantle 54 T.Williams 37 V.Wertz 32 Homeruns NL Snider 33 Mays 30 Bell 29 Batting AL Mantle .365 Jensen .338 Nieman .335 T. Williams .333 Batting NL Virdon .321 Long .310 Valo .310 Aaron .307 RBI Mantle, AL 128, Snider, NL-102 Stolen Bases: Mays, NL 24, Avila AL 30 Walks: Yost, AL 130 I've got all the lineups set as close as I can get them. The thing I'm enjoying the most are the L/R splits. It's really interesting to see the variability in these - some huge (Harry Simpson, Whitey Herzog), some dead even against L/R (Gil McDougald, Frank Robinson) and even some reversed (Joe Adcock). I used *career* splits on season averages to get more stable estimates. Anyhow, this sure is fun. I'm going to send these to Jim in a little while. Biggest bummer - I still can't control batter strikeouts. Everyone whifs at pretty much the same rate. Last thing I want to do is a bit more tweaking on some of the ballparks ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yankee4Life Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 This would be a perfect addition to the '56 mod Paul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim825 Posted March 11, 2008 Share Posted March 11, 2008 Paul - This all sounds great! Let me know when you are done with your updates (rosters and stadiums) and I'll put together an update for TC1956. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulw Posted March 22, 2008 Author Share Posted March 22, 2008 Well, I think I'm just about finished. I've made a bunch of small tweaks, finally settled on a fielding model and run about 50 quick seasons sims. The standings are turning out good and the awards and league leaders are coming out very nicely. The thing that was hardest to balance was getting the runs scored and allowed right by each team. It's a real fine balancing act - a global tweak of 1 or 2 in something like fastball speed and batter contact can make a hugh difference. There's a very interesting interaction between *league* pitching ability and hitting ability that goes on. I guess the last thing I'd like would be any "Did you know?" kind of suggestions. Bizarre trivial stuff like this that I've read about over the years such as: Pedro Ramos could fly - him and Mickey Mantle always wanted to have a race but it never came off. Rocky Colavito had a cannon - he once *threw* a ball completely over the bleachers and out of Tiger Stadium. "Skoonj" - Carl Furillo's nickname - meant turtle in Italian. He was very slow on the basepaths. The 1956 Yankees had the 9th best Actual vs. expected double play rate of all time. McDougald and Martin were one of the best ever keystone combinations. Anyhow, if anyone knows anything they'd like to share - a batting stance, a pitching delivery, info on fielding etc.. I'd love to have you share it. Jim, I think I'll send this to you in about a week. I've got a nice update now also on the Forbes Field scoreboard. I found a wonderful picture from opening day 1956 (Brooklyn at Pittsburgh). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim825 Posted March 22, 2008 Share Posted March 22, 2008 Hi Paul - This all sounds great. I'm looking forward to seeing your work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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