HardcoreLegend Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 No, Barrack Obama built a 10 point lead because the stock market collapsed and the economy has always broke towards a Democratic candidate over the last 30 years. This election was tight until the collapse followed by the bailout that originally failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteamo Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 I know it's a little too late but ... word and his smile reminds me of him lol right on I wonder if Obama can raise his eyebrow too. Do you smell what Obama is cooking! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el_jefe061 Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 No, Barrack Obama built a 10 point lead because the stock market collapsed and the economy has always broke towards a Democratic candidate over the last 30 years. This election was tight until the collapse followed by the bailout that originally failed. You just saying "No", doesn't cut it. I disagree that the only reason Barack Obama is up is the economy. Certainly, the stock market collapse helps Barack Obama, but it helps him because John McCain has professed that he "doesn't know a lot about the economy". However, for a party that has billed themselves as experts on the economy, John McCain performed terribly this campaign. He's relied very little on substance and almost completely on stupid gimmicks like Sarah Palin. It wasn't just the economy; it was the perfect storm of John McCain's erratic behavior (suspending his campaign, etc), Sarah Palin's lack of credentials for being anywhere near the ticket, Barack Obama's 50 state campaign, and the collapse of the economy. John McCain's campaign has been a series of blunders and failed gimmicks that the American people have seen through. He's erratic, angry, and out of touch. He had a shot at winning before the collapse of the economy, but the chickens came home to roost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krawhitham Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 No, Barrack Obama built a 10 point lead because the stock market collapsed and the economy has always broke towards a Democratic candidate over the last 30 years. This election was tight until the collapse followed by the bailout that originally failed. No 1st week June Obama +7 1st week July Obama +9 1st week August Obama +7 1st week September Obama +9 1st poll after RNC (convention/Palin bounce, 9-7-08) McCain +5 By the end of that same month the convention bounce wore off and Obama +9 Now Obama +10 The only time it appeared close was because of a the convention/Palin bounce. Obama did not get a conversion bounce because the RNC was smart to schedule their convention the week following the DNC, and McCain was smart enough to wait and announce his VP the day after the DNC This has never been a close race, The media wants a close race and tries to claim it is for ratings Ratings = Money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kccitystar Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 McCain did have sort of a game changer with the Bush Rebuke, but it was nullified by the Zero Defense. Then he had nothing. Entire thing just felt like McCain was using 1998 debate tactics in a 2008 election. I wonder what McCain's blood pressure is. I was waiting at one point for McCain to just stand up and slap Obama, and then stare at the camera and go, "THAT'S why I'm a MAVERICK, my friends!" and storm off the stage. The entire education piece was ridiculous. He seemed determined to show that he could agree with Obama better than Obama could agree with him. And then throwing in the vouchers thing at the end was classic. I'm still waiting for the October surprise. It's going to happen. Just a matter of when. Bin Laden has to drop a tape any day now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krawhitham Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 McCain won this debate pretty clearly, something he hadn't even come close to doing in the other debates. NO CBS O 53 - M 22 - T 24 CNN O 58 - M 31 Mediacurves Independents O 60 - M 30 - T 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardcoreLegend Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 No 1st week June Obama +7 1st week July Obama +9 1st week August Obama +7 1st week September Obama +9 1st poll after RNC (convention/Palin bounce, 9-7-08) McCain +5 By the end of that same month the convention bounce wore off and Obama +9 Now Obama +10 The only time it appeared close was because of a the convention/Palin bounce. Obama did not get a conversion bounce because the RNC was smart to schedule their convention the week following the DNC, and McCain was smart enough to wait and announce his VP the day after the DNC This has never been a close race, The media wants a close race and tries to claim it is for ratings Ratings = Money That's categorically false. RCP had the average of the National Polls as follows: 1st week June Obama +2 1st week July Obama +6 1st week August Obama +2 1st week September Obama +5 1st poll after RNC (convention/Palin bounce, 9-7-08) McCain +3 By the end of that same month the convention bounce wore off and Obama +5 Now Obama +7 And as far as the state polls, until October 6th, McCain was holding leads in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada and West Virginia (although some by slim margins). He was trailing in Michigan and Pennsylvania by 5-6% points, leaving them very much in play. Then the stock market crashed and every one of those states went into Obama's column by a comfortable margin. That's where we stand today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardcoreLegend Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 In fact, as we stand right now, the traditional way Gallup has predicted the election based on polling over the last 50 years, Obama leads by 3% Nationally. Factoring in new voters, he leads by 8%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkB Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 I wonder what McCain's blood pressure is. I was waiting at one point for McCain to just stand up and slap Obama, and then stare at the camera and go, "THAT'S why I'm a MAVERICK, my friends!" and storm off the stage. :lmao: I'd pay to see that. It would be a bit **** for Barack, but that would be win on so many levels. :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krawhitham Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 In fact, as we stand right now, the traditional way Gallup has predicted the election based on polling over the last 50 years, Obama leads by 3% Nationally. Factoring in new voters, he leads by 8%. and CBS News/NY Times has him up 14 points, that is why you average polls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardcoreLegend Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 and CBS News/NY Times has him up 14 points, that is why you average polls Which is what I did, and showed that the numbers you were using were strangely off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krawhitham Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 That's categorically false. RCP had the average of the National Polls as follows: 1st week June Obama +2 1st week July Obama +6 1st week August Obama +2 1st week September Obama +5 1st poll after RNC (convention/Palin bounce, 9-7-08) McCain +3 By the end of that same month the convention bounce wore off and Obama +5 Now Obama +7 And as far as the state polls, until October 6th, McCain was holding leads in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada and West Virginia (although some by slim margins). He was trailing in Michigan and Pennsylvania by 5-6% points, leaving them very much in play. Then the stock market crashed and every one of those states went into Obama's column by a comfortable margin. That's where we stand today. I would not wipe my *** with RCP, they constantly change their methodology every time Obama pulls ahead by a bit. They exclude polls when they are bad for McCain and start reusing them if McCain does good in them this race has never been close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardcoreLegend Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 Why did you just show graphs that contradict your statement? The race has never been close? At least 3 of those maps show a close race, especially when traditionally Republican Indiana and Virginia break that way. I mean, as late as October 1st, according to the map you provide, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, North Dakota we're all within 3 points (that's what the outline means on E-C.com). That's a close election. You can continue to try and perpetrate this 'landslide' myth if you like, but you aren't providing anything to back it up. And using electoral-vote.com? They let in every possible poll they stumble across. If a poll came out tomorrow from the University of Cincinnati that said John McCain was leading Ohio by 15 points, they'd flip the entire state his way by their methodology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el_jefe061 Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 FiveThirtyEight, which has proven to be the most accurate during the primaries, has Obama with about 380some electoral votes right now. If that's not a landslide, I don't know what is. FiveThirtyEight did have McCain ahead in electoral votes for about a week. Then Sarah Palin started speaking and it hit the skids, which was cemented even further. If the economy is really the single reason that John McCain is going to lose the election, isn't it his fault that he hasn't proven he's capable enough to help the economy? And vice versa, that Barack Obama has shown that his policies and ideas will be more effective? Isn't this all part of a campaign? That's like when losing football teams complain that they would have won the game if "they didn't throw those dang interceptions". Ifs and buts for candy and nuts, sorry, selling your economic ideals to the American people is the most important part of a campaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardcoreLegend Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 And, if there was a terrorist attack domestically in the next 3 weeks, the polls would reverse and McCain would be in the lead. Because it plays to his strengths on foreign policy. Which is essentially what we had. And economic terrorist attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 That domestic terrorist attack happened on Bush's watch, because of his policies, oh and because of his stupid war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardcoreLegend Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 Huh? What domestic terrorist attack? The imaginary one? People aren't smart enough to look for who is to blame. No one cares that Barney Franks protected Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as they were collapsing, hiding the truth from the public. We've had the largest economic meltdown since the Great Depression and where is the 9/11 style Commission investigating who is at fault? What were the causes? I guarantee you if the Republicans controlled both Houses, the Democrats would be up in arms demanding hearings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesmvp04 Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 I would not wipe my **** with RCP, they constantly change their methodology every time Obama pulls ahead by a bit. They exclude polls when they are bad for McCain and start reusing them if McCain does good in them this race has never been close The Reuters/Zogby poll, which has a long reputation of being right on the money (with the exception of the '04 election in which they predicted Kerry to crush the election), places Obama today at 49%-43.5%. Yesterday, Obama led McCain 48.2%-44.4%. Unless John Zogby has all of a sudden become out of whack in his polling techniques, this should be close to accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesmvp04 Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 About the debate last night, I thought it was McCain's best debate, and I think he won it easily. The first two debates were fairly even and could be argued either way (I thought Obama won the first and McCain won the second barely). But this time, McCain had Obama on the defensive the entire night, and he brought out all the important points against him from Ayers to his bad tax policy. It's too bad he didn't do this earlier, because it could've helped him now. But whatever...that'd be one more opportunity McCain has passed up on during this campaign... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkB Posted October 17, 2008 Share Posted October 17, 2008 The problem occurs when you look at the fact that Obama wasn't exactly "found guilty" of having done anything, at all, wrong, with the Ayers issue...or non-issue. Yes, McCain brought it up - so what? He just made himself look eccentric yet again by flinging out the same accusations that have been proved untrue already. McCain seems to have found a few key pieces of perceived dirt on Obama, got hold of them and is riding them to the death - regardless of the fact that they've already been addressed, Obama has discussed them, and he's not actually done anything wrong. Contrary, however, to McCain's VP, who has actually been found guilty of abusing her power by the state legislature probe (source: BBC.co.uk). By the way, I wonder if Walter Monegan is covered by McCain's tax plan. The Republicans like Joe the Plumber, who had his question answered correctly (source: BBC.co.uk), yet still says Obama "tap-danced" around it (nothing like plugging your ears and shouting "LALALALALALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU", right Joe?), how about Walt the Trooper as the meme of choice for the Democrats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catzrthecoolest Posted October 19, 2008 Share Posted October 19, 2008 In other news, did anyone see the movie "W." yet? i thought it was fascinating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesmvp04 Posted October 19, 2008 Share Posted October 19, 2008 In other news, did anyone see the movie "W." yet? i thought it was fascinating...Was it biased? I know the director said he was going to try to make it neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catzrthecoolest Posted October 19, 2008 Share Posted October 19, 2008 To me it didn't seem to be biased... if you're very liberal (like so many people of this site :wink: ) then you would probably not like it because it doesn't show him in a bad light... The acting, especially josh brolin's, was excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hory Posted October 19, 2008 Share Posted October 19, 2008 And, if there was a terrorist attack domestically in the next 3 weeks, the polls would reverse and McCain would be in the lead. Because it plays to his strengths on foreign policy. Which is essentially what we had. And economic terrorist attack. But before the so-called economic crisis came to the fore, 538.com predicted the poll bounce of McCain from the conventions wouldn't last and that Obama would return to a slightly bigger lead than before the convention weeks, the only thing they messed up was how big and fast the swing was. Just as whining about the Swiftboat idiots provided an excuse for John Kerry's weak campaign effort in '04, this economic crisis is being used as a crutch for a poor election campaign, which was epitomized by the selection of a running mate who completely undercuts McCain's strengths against Obama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el_jefe061 Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 And, if there was a terrorist attack domestically in the next 3 weeks, the polls would reverse and McCain would be in the lead. Because it plays to his strengths on foreign policy. Which is essentially what we had. And economic terrorist attack. "Perceived" strengths. I don't know what John McCain has done to show that he's more qualified with foreign policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.