A Random Schedule Maker...

[DylanBradbury]

Any ideas on a 162 game schedule maker (with series) formula or algorithm?

[lyon810]

I use your other ratings programs all the time, they really help to make the game more realistic. A mod such as this would be nice, but like you said, it would prove difficult to assess a pitcher's attributes based purely on stats.

There is so much that goes into pitching stats and so many outside factors, it would be really tough to make a spot-on rating projector.

[DylanBradbury]

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[stecropper]

Just for note.

1st) Total Classics starts with importing via the Lahman Database via Robert Glass's MVPEdit program. For Pitchers it is forced to use a Fastball and also assigns a Curveball to each pitcher. Then it randomly selects 2 other pitch types. Each of those pitch types are assigned ratings (Movement, Control & Velocity) based off a Pitchers Stats from the formulas built into MVPEdit which we created. It also randomly selects a valid trajectory for each pitch type.

2nd) Then we use Rob Neyer's Book of Pitchers to gain insight into a Pitchers Pitch types and other factors regarding a pitcher such as his speed on certain pitches as well as his delivery. Unfortunately only select pitchers are found within this book. This is a manual process.

3rd) We then use Sports Mogul for a reference to set all individual Pitch Types as well as a Pitcher's dominant & less dominant pitches. Sports Mogul list each and every Pitcher. This too is a very manual process.

4th) Then of course we lastly make manual adjustments relative to things we are aware of from personal knowledge or other research.

Yes, Pitchers Ratings are perhaps the most time consuming and difficult ratings to assign with any degree of accuracy. But surprisely our methods have proven to produced fairly realistic and accurate results.

Hope this helps,

[DylanBradbury]

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[stecropper]

Don't mind sharing what I have in the least ....... encourageing more folks into doing this along with us is why we started all this madness to begin with.

Unfortunately I have nothing in electronic format rather only hardcopy notes and old emails I sent Robert during the process. It may take me awhile to locate them and then type them all up but very willing to give it a try ......... please send me an email so we can communicate that way versus here in the forum ---- stecropper @ aol dot com and I will get you what I can as soon as I can.

Keep in mind that this was way back in 2004 when we did these so there will be several iterations of improvements that I will send along as well since we changed things as we learnt more about how the MVP 2005 engine actually worked with these ratings

[DylanBradbury]

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[jerm]

Pitcher's are very difficult to make. At www.thesportslodge.com they have (or at least they used to) have a lot of members making CAPs (create-a-players). I used to do some CAPs but I only did batters because I really couldn't find pitcher info. There are however some members that know alot about that stuff so you could ask them if you want. I would recommend talking to thechief1984.

[SeveredSoulX]

Well I'm not much of a stats guy, but I have, in my head, some pitches that I believe are strikeout pitches and some that are ground ball/pop-up pitches, so if you could incorprate the number of innings pitched with K's and some statistic for ground balls vs pop ups, number of foul balls a game, etc. then it could give you a realistic result.

4 Seam is necessity to the game

Anything breaking (curve, slider, slurve, etc.) I think are foul ball prone and strikeouts

Anything sinking (splitter and sinker, 12-6 curve or 11-5) are grounders and line drives

Anything fast or slow could be either, but changeups are prone to fouled off or popup

2 seams and cut fastballs are the two oddballs - they can be either popped up, or strikeout, just depends on how the batter reacts

And, of course, all knuckleballers are well known, so you'll know if they can throw it or not

If that's any help, you're welcome, if not, just burn the idea =)

[DylanBradbury]

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[DylanBradbury]

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[BigPaPa]

Ive got an Algorithm for it that is very rough but when ive hand done the calculations it works OK though ive only tested it on like 5 or maybe 6 pitchers.

Ive been trying to work it into a java program to test just how well it works and have maybe half of it done.

If your interested i can try to explain it, its really ******* complicated.

[DylanBradbury]

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[DylanBradbury]

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[BigPaPa]

oh guess my PM got lost in the upgrade.

Well here goes i guess.

Right now its only Starting pitchers and is short on real math and big on vauge ideas that i have tried like 20 different actual equations for.

The Info Needed:

Innings Pitched

Games Started

Ks

Walks

ERA

Then Pitch Repertoire Ranked From Best to Worst (in real life: IE Johan's Best pitch is probably his Changeup even though MVP thinks it fastball)

A Relative Velocity For Each Pitch.

A Relative Break Direction for each pitch.

Must include at least 2 pitches

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So once we get that we sort the pitcher into one of Six categories.

Category One is Fastball/Changeup Pitcher. Ex. Johan or Vintage Pedro

Category Two is A pure Power Pitcher. Ex. Vintage Clemens, Randy Jhonson

Category Three is a Sinker Baller Ex. Wang, Lowe, Webb

Category Four a is Knuckle Balller Ex. Wakefeild

Category Five is a Finesse Pitcher Ex. Maddux, Moyer

Category Six is a Fasball/ Breaking Ball pitcher IE Curve/Slider/Cutter/K-Curve... Basically pitcher with good stuff but not overpowering speedwise Ex. Zito, Halliday, Mussina, Pettite

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How to Decide and hat to do once you do decide.

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Category 1:

If i pitcher's #1 pitch is a Changeup or if a Pitcher #2 Pitch is a Changeup and Fastball is #1.

Ok for this type of pitcher we generate Ks per 9, BB per 9,

If the K per 9 is really high you add a few ticks to the Fastball Subtract a few ticks from the changeup. Generally for pitcher to strike out more then 9 per 9 they must have a fastball in the upper 90 and changeup in the low 70 or even down in the 60s. Though im not sure, its possible a circle change may be a more effective strikeout pitch. (Downward movement also appears to help increase Ks but i hvn't been able to really figure out how much

If the K Per 9 is fairly low add speed to the changeup and reduce Fastball speed. Basically the bigger the speed change the mroe Ks.

If the K per 9 is really high but the fastball/changeup differance is not very great, less then 10+ mph make them 4 more mph apart and then reduce the speed of the third pitch if it is a breaking pitch or increase the speed of third pitch if it is a 2 seamer, cutter or sinker.

Control for each pitch is a bit harder to assign and i hvnt really been able to nail it.

The best way ive found is if BB are very low less then 3 and ERA is very low under 3.3 then controll on at least pitches 1-3 is very high.

If BB is low but the ERA is fairly high, Then Fastball control is very good but the control of other pitches is fairly low.

For high BB but lowish ERA this usually means a lot of Ks and can be obtained by creating a large differance between fastball and Change speed.

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Category2:

1) If a Pitchers First pitch is a fastball Over 94.

Then

if pitch 2

Cutter over 92

Slider over 90

Curve/Kcurve over 83

2-Seam over 94

Splitter over 90

Changeup can't be Second

Keep in mind there are 3 differant types of Changeup in the game so i take variation of the same pitch as well

We do k per nine BB per 9 ect... again

Power pitchers with low BB and ERA with High Ks make fastball and control of pitch 2 and 3 very high , if pitch 3 is a changeup, curveball, or splitter reduce it speed slightly and if the pitcher has a changeup even if its a fifth pitch reduce its speed.

Power pitchers with high BB low ERA and high Ks again reduce speed of pitch 3 if its a breaking pitch and reduce speed oa changeup if it exists. If breaking pitch exists increase movement and control. Reduce control on the fastball.

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Category 3:

Pretty Simple if pitch #1 is a sinker.

pretty easy here. Low k, low walk = Sinker, Fastball, 2 Seam, Cutter, Slider all about same speed.

high K = Increase Break on Breaking pitches and lower Speed. Increse speed on Sinkers and Fastballs.

High BB = low sinker and Fastball control.

High ERA = reduce control on sinkers and fastballs and reduce control on breaking pitches.

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Category 4:

Pretty Simple again if pitch #1 is a Knuckeball.

Pretty simple here, these pitcher dont come along very often but they pretty much live and die with the Break.

make it High for = lower ERA and Higher Ks

for BB amke control Low

reduce rating across the board according to ERA for off pitches. Its very easy to make a knucleballer overpowered by giveing them strong pitches outside of the Knucleball.

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Categry 5:

Fastball under 90

All pitches under 90

Curveball under 80

Slider under 85

Cutter under 86

2 seam under 88

ect..

More then 3 pitches total.

This is pretty easy its all int he control and break reall.

To increasse both ERA and Walks reduce Control.

To Increase Ks add break to the Changeups and Curveballs and reduce these pitches speeds slightly.

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Category 6:

If you hvnt been picked out yet your probably here so....

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Ive been working on making this more of a real algoritm with real math for it and stuff but it takes time becuase theres is so much.

Ill come back and edit/Add to this post as i figure out more but this is the basis this was my the basic idea i jotted down when i started experimenting.

The only part ive had any real success in is my sorting into groups ive taken well known pitchers put there pitch sections and velocities in to my program and it sorts them into there correct type.

I have also used several of the above ideas in game, just sort of guessing, with mixed results. I ahve tries to recreate pither already ingame and math there stats in a Sim with some sucess.

I have had trouble recreating crappy stats though, Sidney Ponson or Bartolo Colon for example.

This is a really hard its a whole program similar to your others for just one step here. Hope this helps.

[DylanBradbury]

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[Yankee4Life]

I love this program for this game. Thank you.

[DylanBradbury]

I love this program for this game. Thank you.

You're welcome Y4L! I really hope you and everyone else enjoys it!