2009 Mlb Season Predictions!

[superciuc]

I still don't fully understand as to why everyone is so hateful of A-Rod. It just surprises me that you would want a guy who has hit .303 with 42 HRs and 123 RBIs on average for the last 5 years to start hitting. Granted his post-season struggles have been well documented, but it hasn't been just A-Rod that has struggled in the off-season. It's just been talked about the most because the Yankees have not been able to win a WS title with him in the lineup.

In any case, I do think this is the off-season that the Yankees went after all the right players. One of the toughest divisions in baseball just got even tougher with all the new additions to the respective teams.

A-Rod had a nice year last year, but he struggled with runners in scored position (He hit jus .271 with runners in scoring position).

[Yankee4Life]

A-Rod had a nice year last year, but he struggled with runners in scored position (He hit jus .271 with runners in scoring position).

I was waiting for someone else to say this. Have any one of you heard the expression "there are lies, damn lies and statistics"? That's exactly how you got to look at A-Rod's year in 2008. Sure the lousy SOB put up some good numbers but he did NOTHING and I mean NOTHING in the clutch. Every time runners were in scoring position last year or when we needed a key hit, this guy came up empty more times than not.

[superciuc]

I was waiting for someone else to say this. Have any one of you heard the expression "there are lies, damn lies and statistics"? That's exactly how you got to look at A-Rod's year in 2008. Sure the lousy SOB put up some good numbers but he did NOTHING and I mean NOTHING in the clutch. Every time runners were in scoring position last year or when we needed a key hit, this guy came up empty more times than not.

If you compare his MVP-year to last season you'll see lots of difference. In 2007, he hit amazingly well in every situation (with the bases loaded, with the runners in scoring position, etc.). In 2008, he it well only with the bases empty (altough his stats were pretty good afterall).

A-Rod is the only player who can have a bad season and still have great stats at the end of it.

[Yankee4Life]

A-Rod is the only player who can have a bad season and still have great stats at the end of it.

Yes he is. And that's called padding your statistics. The guy would hit a three run homer in the ninth inning when they were losing 10-1.

[superciuc]

Yes he is. And that's called padding your statistics. The guy would hit a three run homer in the ninth inning when they were losing 10-1.

True. A-Rod would hit well only when down by 3 run or more.

[JP_Frost]

True. A-Rod would hit well only when down by 3 run or more.

though it's true his situational hitting wasn't as good as 2007, it's far from awful and it shows you how volatile those stats are. In any case he led the Yankees in VORP, Value Wins, WARP and Win Shares (tied with Damon), so he was definately the best everyday player on that team. I'm sure however, that some of you will claim that those stats don't mean anything.

[spicybanana]

I've been looking at the Mets head-to-head record with the Phillies last year. The Mets won 11 times against the Phillies, losing 7. Of those 7 losses, five can be blamed on the bullpen.

1) On April 8, the Mets lose to the Phillies 5-2, the bullpen blowing a late 2-0 lead in the 7th.

2) They lose again on April 20, after Pedro Feliciano surrenders a tiebreaking homer to Pedro Feliz in the 7th, to make the game 5-4. The Phillies would win by that score.

3) On Independence Day, Johan Santana has a brilliant effort, but leaves with a no-decision, the game tied 2-2. Duaner Sanchez loses the game to a Shane Victorino walk-off hit, 3-2.

4) July 22, the Phillies score 6 runs on a depleted Met bullpen (without Billy Wagner, obviously) in the 9th inning, turning a 5-2 lead into an 8-5 deficit and an 8-6 loss.

5) And finally, probably the worst of the losses, the Mets completely squander a 7-0 lead after a game-tying double to Eric Bruntlett of all people, and lose the game in the 13th, 8-7.

Now, I know it's easy to say that if the Mets won two of these games, they would win the division. Obviously, there would be other factors to account for. But it's possible that the Mets could have utterly dominated the Phillies last year, changing last year's playoff picture, had the bullpen not given up this many games.

[Thome25]

I've been looking at the Mets head-to-head record with the Phillies last year. The Mets won 11 times against the Phillies, losing 7. Of those 7 losses, five can be blamed on the bullpen.

1) On April 8, the Mets lose to the Phillies 5-2, the bullpen blowing a late 2-0 lead in the 7th.

2) They lose again on April 20, after Pedro Feliciano surrenders a tiebreaking homer to Pedro Feliz in the 7th, to make the game 5-4. The Phillies would win by that score.

3) On Independence Day, Johan Santana has a brilliant effort, but leaves with a no-decision, the game tied 2-2. Duaner Sanchez loses the game to a Shane Victorino walk-off hit, 3-2.

4) July 22, the Phillies score 6 runs on a depleted Met bullpen (without Billy Wagner, obviously) in the 9th inning, turning a 5-2 lead into an 8-5 deficit and an 8-6 loss.

5) And finally, probably the worst of the losses, the Mets completely squander a 7-0 lead after a game-tying double to Eric Bruntlett of all people, and lose the game in the 13th, 8-7.

Now, I know it's easy to say that if the Mets won two of these games, they would win the division. Obviously, there would be other factors to account for. But it's possible that the Mets could have utterly dominated the Phillies last year, changing last year's playoff picture, had the bullpen not given up this many games.

I am sure a few teams can say if this or that didnt happen, things would of been different.

[Yankee4Life]

though it's true his situational hitting wasn't as good as 2007, it's far from awful and it shows you how volatile those stats are. In any case he led the Yankees in VORP, Value Wins, WARP and Win Shares (tied with Damon), so he was definately the best everyday player on that team. I'm sure however, that some of you will claim that those stats don't mean anything.

[JP_Frost]

haha, what a surprise coming from you YFL. I didn't expect any attempt at an intelligent rebuttal, so this is most fitting.

[Yankee4Life]

haha, what a surprise coming from you YFL. I didn't expect any attempt at an intelligent rebuttal, so this is most fitting.

All I'm trying to say is that I actually watched the Yankee games last year and I saw what he didn't do in the clutch. Spin your statistics any way you wish to. I saw with my own eyes how terrible he was last year.

I hope that's an intelligent enough response for you.

[MetsReyes777]

LOL. I am loving this A-Rod argument.

[Yankee4Life]

LOL. I am loving this A-Rod argument.

:lol:

[JP_Frost]

All I'm trying to say is that I actually watched the Yankee games last year and I saw what he didn't do in the clutch. Spin your statistics any way you wish to. I saw with my own eyes how terrible he was last year.

I hope that's an intelligent enough response for you.

Spin my statistics? There's no spinning to them. They quantify a player's value, which is far more reliable than what you think you saw. And secondly, these aren't my statistics -- don't act like I put some letters together and a random number to create something. Alot of those stats are being used by front offices to determine a player's value to the team. Maybe you can understand more basic stats such HR's and RBI.

A-Rod ranked:

2nd in BA

1st in OBP

1st in SLG

1st in HR

1st in RBI

1st in TB

but yeah, you watched him and you think he was terrible, so that must be the truth.

Welcome to the 21st century YFL.

[superciuc]

Spin my statistics? There's no spinning to them. They quantify a player's value, which is far more reliable than what you think you saw. And secondly, these aren't my statistics -- don't act like I put some letters together and a random number to create something. Alot of those stats are being used by front offices to determine a player's value to the team. Maybe you can understand more basic stats such HR's and RBI.

A-Rod ranked:

2nd in BA

1st in OBP

1st in SLG

1st in HR

1st in RBI

1st in TB

but yeah, you watched him and you think he was terrible, so that must be the truth.

Welcome to the 21st century YFL.

What Y4L wants to say is that, you have to see a player play to see if he's really good. A-Rod had pretty good stats last year, but clutch hitting isn't a stat (Heck, i don't even think clutch hitting exists).The fact is, that A-Rod struggled with RISP last year (.271 AVG with RISP). And hell this may be decent for a average player, but you expect a lot more from the 2007 MVP. And as a matter of fact, A-Rod hit .333 with RISP in 2007.

And it is statistically proved that Y4L (YFL) is still stuck in the 19th century.

[TheSabathiaEra]

Superciuc FTW..... ;)

[superciuc]

Superciuc FTW.....

I just hope that my post made sense :D

[redsox]

What Y4L wants to say is that, you have to see a player play to see if he's really good. A-Rod had pretty good stats last year, but clutch hitting isn't a stat (Heck, i don't even think clutch hitting exists).The fact is, that A-Rod struggled with RISP last year (.271 AVG with RISP). And hell this may be decent for a average player, but you expect a lot more from the 2007 MVP. And as a matter of fact, A-Rod hit .333 with RISP in 2007.

And it is statistically proved that Y4L (YFL) is still stuck in the 19th century.

But that's what advanced statistical analysis is for. The stats show exactly the type of player A-Rod (or anyone else for that matter) performed over a certain time frame. Sure, compared to his 2007 statistics, his 2008 season is a disappointment, but the supporting cast wasn't any better.

[superciuc]

But that's what advanced statistical analysis is for. The stats show exactly the type of player A-Rod (or anyone else for that matter) performed over a certain time frame. Sure, compared to his 2007 statistics, his 2008 season is a disappointment, but the supporting cast wasn't any better.

The problem is that many people look only 3 things: AVG, HR, RBI.

[JP_Frost]

But that's what advanced statistical analysis is for. The stats show exactly the type of player A-Rod (or anyone else for that matter) performed over a certain time frame. Sure, compared to his 2007 statistics, his 2008 season is a disappointment, but the supporting cast wasn't any better.

Exactly. It's been a known fact that stats with RISP can be extremely volatile, and while A-Rod may have dissapointed in that department compared to 2007, his overall numbers were very good last year. Even if you value "clutch stats" more than anything, he wasn't that bad that you can call his entire season terrible.

[redsox]

The problem is that many people look only 3 things: AVG, HR, RBI.

Second in BA (.302 BA, Damon topped the season with a .303 BA)

First in HRs

First in RBIs

Either way you look at it (advanced statistics or not) A-Rod was arguably the best hitter the Yankees had last season.

[D-Unit]

You know a lot of people can't even hit .277 for a half year, let alone with RISP or clutch situations.

Y4L and superciuc, I am really dissappointed to see how you constantly bash A-Rod. Yeah, I have seen him fail in the clutch at times, but any star athlete is going to fail at some point and it's made obvious because of their high status.

I was at a game when Derek Jeter was up with the bases loaded against the Mariners and could have tied the game with a grand slam. Instead he flied out, to the warning track to end the game. What happened? Nobody booed him and you wouldn't have either. But if Damon and Jeter would lead off the game going back to back and A-Rod strikes out after, you guys jump on his *** like no other.

You make fun of A-Rod whether he makes an out in the clutch or if it has no importance whatsoever. And when he does succeed in the clutch, you're still not happy. You either think "He better keep it up" or "Wow, we got really lucky there." You don't hate the player, you hate the game. The only people who deserve to bash their own players (while still being a top tier player) should be the guys writing these insane paychecks. A-Rod and all these other players still bust their balls regardless to help their team win. He was the best SS in baseball and moved to third to be a Yankee. As real Yankee fans, you need to get over it.

And heres a way to dispute RISP. Let's say ANY HITTER is up 4 times in a game, all with RISP, 2 outs. Every time, there's a runner on second. He singles twice, walks once and strikes out once. He hit .500 with RISP. But no runs driven in, only moved the runner to third twice, and the guy after him made an out to end the inning. Who the hell cares that he hit .500?

[superciuc]

You know a lot of people can't even hit .277 for a half year, let alone with RISP or clutch situations.

Y4L and superciuc, I am really dissappointed to see how you constantly bash A-Rod. Yeah, I have seen him fail in the clutch at times, but any star athlete is going to fail at some point and it's made obvious because of their high status.

I was at a game when Derek Jeter was up with the bases loaded against the Mariners and could have tied the game with a grand slam. Instead he flied out, to the warning track to end the game. What happened? Nobody booed him and you wouldn't have either. But if Damon and Jeter would lead off the game going back to back and A-Rod strikes out after, you guys jump on his *** like no other.

You make fun of A-Rod whether he makes an out in the clutch or if it has no importance whatsoever. And when he does succeed in the clutch, you're still not happy. You either think "He better keep it up" or "Wow, we got really lucky there." You don't hate the player, you hate the game. The only people who deserve to bash their own players (while still being a top tier player) should be the guys writing these insane paychecks. A-Rod and all these other players still bust their balls regardless to help their team win. He was the best SS in baseball and moved to third to be a Yankee. As real Yankee fans, you need to get over it.

And heres a way to dispute RISP. Let's say ANY HITTER is up 4 times in a game, all with RISP, 2 outs. Every time, there's a runner on second. He singles twice, walks once and strikes out once. He hit .500 with RISP. But no runs driven in, only moved the runner to third twice, and the guy after him made an out to end the inning. Who the hell cares that he hit .500?

Wait, you don't understand. I'm not bashing A-Rod. As a matter of fact, he's one of the greatest players in the MLB today. I'm just saying that he struggled with RISP in last season. And i'm not "jumping on his ***" if he strikes out. Well, i may be a little disappointed, but i won't jump on his ***.

[Yankee4Life]

You know a lot of people can't even hit .277 for a half year, let alone with RISP or clutch situations.

Y4L and superciuc, I am really dissappointed to see how you constantly bash A-Rod. Yeah, I have seen him fail in the clutch at times, but any star athlete is going to fail at some point and it's made obvious because of their high status.

I was at a game when Derek Jeter was up with the bases loaded against the Mariners and could have tied the game with a grand slam. Instead he flied out, to the warning track to end the game. What happened? Nobody booed him and you wouldn't have either. But if Damon and Jeter would lead off the game going back to back and A-Rod strikes out after, you guys jump on his *** like no other.

You make fun of A-Rod whether he makes an out in the clutch or if it has no importance whatsoever. And when he does succeed in the clutch, you're still not happy. You either think "He better keep it up" or "Wow, we got really lucky there." You don't hate the player, you hate the game. The only people who deserve to bash their own players (while still being a top tier player) should be the guys writing these insane paychecks. A-Rod and all these other players still bust their balls regardless to help their team win. He was the best SS in baseball and moved to third to be a Yankee. As real Yankee fans, you need to get over it.

D-Unit, I think you are mistaken here. I'm not making fun of A-Rod at all. I realize that all players, no matter who they are, will not succeed most of the time. But all I am saying is that both of us watched a lot of Yankee games last year and we saw more often than not Alex Rodriguez doing nothing when it really mattered. And no, not everything was his fault.

I'm not trying to say that because he had an off year that was the problem of the 2008 Yankees. I don't forget about how many double plays Jeter grounded into last year. Or how Cano didn't try all year. Or how many injuries that they had.

All I do know is that in 2007 he was playing for a new contract and he had a monster year. In 2008, after he got his contract, he was someone that the other team didn't mind having up at the plate during a tense situation because he was not the same player in 2008 as he was in 2007.

[el_jefe061]

I don't see why Yankee fans talk about A-Rod when Jeter has been just as bad. Sure, Jeter was "clutch" in the 90's, but since then he hasn't done much. You're paying $18 million a year to a washed up defensive shortstop who's really only a singles hitter. At the very least, he needs to change positions.