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2009 Mlb Season Predictions!


MetsReyes777

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Without A-Rod the yankees probably would have struggled to get to .500

As for jeter go ahead and find me a Singles hitter with 40 Extra base hits and in MLB in 2008 he was ranked 4th in BA, 4th in OBP, 5th in RBIs 5th in Putouts and among SS with more then 100 games played his Fielding % was ranked 5th. He was in the middle of the pack as far as fielding errors having the 16th most. His RF (Range Factor), also middle of the pack at 15th. In fact last year was a more typical Fielding season while the 2 previous were downright bad.

That was in a pretty down year for jeter his Slugging % was way off career marks.

Is that worth 18 mil? Probably not, but thats not washed up or a singles hitter.

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Without A-Rod the yankees probably would have struggled to get to .500

As for jeter go ahead and find me a Singles hitter with 40 Extra base hits and in MLB in 2008 he was ranked 4th in BA, 4th in OBP, 5th in RBIs 5th in Putouts and among SS with more then 100 games played his Fielding % was ranked 5th. He was in the middle of the pack as far as fielding errors having the 16th most. His RF (Range Factor), also middle of the pack at 15th. In fact last year was a more typical Fielding season while the 2 previous were downright bad.

That was in a pretty down year for jeter his Slugging % was way off career marks.

Is that worth 18 mil? Probably not, but thats not washed up or a singles hitter.

add in all the intangibles and he's a bargain :rolleyes:

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Jeter = intangibles

Lugo = beats his wife

No Red Sox fan likes Lugo. You know that. Roger Clemens dates 15 year olds and juices, A-Rod cheats his family, and Chamberlain got a DUI. Every team has some scumbags. Not that it excuses anyone.

As for jeter go ahead and find me a Singles hitter with 40 Extra base hits and in MLB in 2008 he was ranked 4th in BA, 4th in OBP, 5th in RBIs 5th in Putouts and among SS with more then 100 games played his Fielding % was ranked 5th. He was in the middle of the pack as far as fielding errors having the 16th most. His RF (Range Factor), also middle of the pack at 15th. In fact last year was a more typical Fielding season while the 2 previous were downright bad.

That was in a pretty down year for jeter his Slugging % was way off career marks.

Is that worth 18 mil? Probably not, but thats not washed up or a singles hitter.

He's a washed up fielder, not necessarily a washed up hitter. He's probably going to be a middle of the pack hitter as a shortstop. The problem is shortstop is the 2nd most important defensive position on the field. Derek Jeter has pretty sure hands, but his range is awful. I read this on FanGraphs today:

The player with the highest rate of grounders kept in the infield is Adam Everett at 83.5%, while the worst is Ramon Vazquez at 76.5%. Jeter is next to last at 77.3%. No other shortstop today has such a wide divergence of the highly visible "hands" and the nearly invisible "range" as Jeter.

What really counts is when the ball is hit, does the fielder make an out? That's the definition of Defense Efficiency Rating (DER) on a team level. Whether it's by range, throwing arm or good hands, it's the out that counts. With 1000 or more ground balls, the bottom five at shortstop are Angel Berroa 71.1%, Michael Young 71.0%, Jeter 70.9%, Felipe Lopez 70.2% and Carlos Guillen 69.8%. At the top are Adam Everett 75.7%, Omar Vizquel 74.9%, Troy Tulowitzki 74.3%, Julio Lugo 74.1% and Khalil Greene 74.1%.

His range isn't good at all anymore. The fact that he was 5th in putouts is incredibly deceiving.

As for his bat, he's still hits for a pretty high average and talks a fair share of walks. However, his 243 total bases were 10th among shortstops, and it's likely to go down even further. 79% of his hits are singles. The only Top 10 shortstop with a similar percentage is Jose Reyes, but he had over 200 hits and almost 90 more total bases.

What you get out of Derek Jeter is a decent top of the lineup hitter who will have a good OBP, make a lot of contact, and draw a lot of walks. However, his offense is no longer good enough to justify his defense. He could be a much more valuable player if he were in Center or Left Field. He's like Varitek; the heart of a franchise who is tough to let go of. At least you can shift Jeter somewhere and still have him. I've got nothin against Jeter, he's going to be a Hall of Famer and he's been a good ambassador of baseball in a time when it's been hurt by cheaters. His time as an elite shortstop has gone away a long time ago.

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A long time ago?

HMM i remember way back in 2006, when i was jsut a wee lad, he was 2nd in MVP Voting, amazing how good he was all those years ago....

everyone has ups and downs, one off season dont mean sh** thats why we have 3 year splits.

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Somebody please tell me how a thread that was originally about the 2009 predictions became a "Derek Jeter is no good anymore" thread.

someone mentioning Yankees>>>someone mentioning a-rod>>>a-rod abuse>>>>the fact that a-rod isn't derek jeter>>>derek jeter

Quite a common trend really

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Just to prove Y4L's point.

Rodriguez was statistically the worst clutch hitter in the majors last year with a clutch rating of -3.16. The next worst was -2.6. Plain and simple, he sucked.

Thank you, thank you and thank you again. Now do you see how these guys can throw statistic after statistic at you showing you how good this guy was but all you had to do is watch him last year and your eyes told you different.

Clutch hitting and A-Rod were not a good combination last year. And as you said, plain and simple, he sucked.

EDIT: These guys will probably say this statistic doesn't count.

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Wow, i knew he was bad in the clutch last year but i didn't realise he was that bad!

Yeah, and that's what I meant by watching the Yankees play all year. If you did that, you could have seen beyond the stats how bad he was. Statistics hide a lot of things.

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Yeah, and that's what I meant by watching the Yankees play all year. If you did that, you could have seen beyond the stats how bad he was. Statistics hide a lot of things.

I definatly have to agree, i didn't get to watch many Yankees games last year so i can't pass comment on A-Rod but statistics don't just hide a lot but there are so many different statistics that you can find some that could show Jacoby Ellsbury as one of the best power hitters in the game. (That was an example and not an accurate one at that, i just used it to prove my point.)

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I definatly have to agree, i didn't get to watch many Yankees games last year so i can't pass comment on A-Rod but statistics don't just hide a lot but there are so many different statistics that you can find some that could show Jacoby Ellsbury as one of the best power hitters in the game. (That was an example and not an accurate one at that, i just used it to prove my point.)

Hey, I understand. With you living in England you wouldn't be able to see every Yankee game unless you shelled out the money at MLB.com. I have the YES Network so that's the only reason why I can see the amount of games that I do.

I wasn't trying to dump on the guy. Believe me, I want this guy to have a wonderful year and be a consistent hitter for the Yankees. I want him to be the best. But it got to the point last year that when he came up in a clutch situation, you could almost guess the result, and way more often than not, he came away empty.

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I completely understand what your trying to get across because if i was a Yankee fan i would expect a lot more than you get considering what he is being paid. Between A-Rod and Jeter it must be extremely frustrating at times to be a Yankee fan.

The problem with these types of discussions are that people get a bit wound up before actually considering what the other person is trying to say and then that can lead to a whole load of other issues.

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I completely understand what your trying to get across because if i was a Yankee fan i would expect a lot more than you get considering what he is being paid. Between A-Rod and Jeter it must be extremely frustrating at times to be a Yankee fan.

Yes, it's frustrating because I wasted a year out of my life watching a team that calls themselves Yankees sleepwalk through an American League season. They lead the league in excuses and coulda, shoulda and woulda's.

It's also frustrating to try to explain it to some people in here because all they know how to do is run to the stat book and try to tell me how wrong I am. "Look how many RBI's he got Y4L, look at his batting average, look at this, look at that." A-Rod had fine stats last year, but when the team really needed him, he tanked it. Just like everyone else last year.

I'm anxiously awaiting the stat boys response to this. Should be another wacked out comeback.

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The problem with these types of discussions are that people get a bit wound up before actually considering what the other person is trying to say and then that can lead to a whole load of other issues.

Yeah. I mean what the hell did Jeter have to do with this and what kind of fielder he is? I think there is some kind of misunderstanding but there's also idiotic responses too because they don't know what they're talking about.

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I do think the whole thing turned in to "take a shot at the Yankees" I'm not sure why, it might have something to do with them getting all the free agents all the other big teams wanted. Who knows.

I don't think the Yankees deserve to have any shots taken at them until they start showing everyone that they can start winning ball games with some kind of consistency. They are not the current World Champions. They are looking up just like everyone else is.

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I do think the whole thing turned in to "take a shot at the Yankees" I'm not sure why, it might have something to do with them getting all the free agents all the other big teams wanted. Who knows.

I don't think that's it, 'cause people were actually defending A-Rod. I don't think anyone "took a shot at the Yankees" in this thread.

clutcharodxm3.jpg

Rodriguez was statistically the worst clutch hitter in the majors last year with a clutch rating of -3.16. The next worst was -2.6. Plain and simple, he sucked.

Agreed that stats don't lie and the above screen clearly shows that A-Rod was not clutch last year. But... (sorry y4l, I know you are probably going to hate me) :) in this case, clutch is a measure that doesn't necessarily do justice. Here's an example - a player who generally hits .250 in neutral situations, but hits .350 in high-pressured situations, is considered to be clutch. On the other hand, if a player has the same average in both neutral and clutch situations, that player would not be considered clutch. Why should he be considered clutch if he did not elevate his game at all? An example that fangraphs gives is that of B.Bonds. Bonds was a monster from 2001-2004, and yet his clutch value ranged from -0.49 to -1.14. That doesn't mean Bonds sucked in clutch/high-pressured situations. It just means that he hit anything and everything no matter the situation.

Here's another example, Pujols has a clutch value of -0.21 while Troy Glaus has a clutch value of +0.72, but it would be foolish to argue that Glaus was more valuable to the Cardinals than Pujols last year.

...I'm anxiously awaiting the stat boys response to this. Should be another wacked out comeback.

Wacked out comeback? Come on y4l. I fully understand and agree that you watched a lot of Yankees game last year (hell of a lot more than me for sure). You have you stance on a subject and we have ours. But realize that these statistics are not being pulled from thin air. I fully respect the fact you are a Yankee fan and that you would know more about them than me. But at the same time, just because I didn't watch a whole lot of Yankee games last year doesn't mean what I say is wrong.

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Somebody please tell me how a thread that was originally about the 2009 predictions became a "Derek Jeter is no good anymore" thread.

"2009 New York Yankees World Champions"->A-Rod->A-Rod Chokes->A-Rod isn't as big of a problem as Jeter

That's how it happened. Pretty simple. Just like it's pretty simple how you can't have a below average defender with a barely above average bat at the 2nd most important defensive position on the field.

In trying to justify the argument I have that the Yankees are not going to be significantly better in 2009, one part of that is to show that Jeter's future decline will help to cancel out the improvements from Mark Teixeira in the lineup. The Yankees will need improved defense to become a better team, and the only way to do that is to move Derek Jeter to Left or Center Field. Until then, it is my belief that the Yankees will not reach their true potential on the field.

The Red Sox moved Nomar Garciaparra when the time was right, and that helped to give them a World Series. Moving Nomar Garciaparra improved the Red Sox at a premium defensive position.

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Thank you, thank you and thank you again. Now do you see how these guys can throw statistic after statistic at you showing you how good this guy was but all you had to do is watch him last year and your eyes told you different.

Clutch hitting and A-Rod were not a good combination last year. And as you said, plain and simple, he sucked.

EDIT: These guys will probably say this statistic doesn't count.

nobody argued that he wasn't bad in the clutch, but if you look at those names (A-Rod, Utley, Ludwick), those guys all had a very good year. So despite their poor clutch stats, their overall lines made them very valuable. It seems that some people are too hung up on the whole situational hitting thing.

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