GForce22 Posted March 14, 2005 Share Posted March 14, 2005 There's no accurate formula for anything, and formulae just don't rhyme especially with pitching. I can only suggest you to take a look at GForce22's TotalMinors to see how he did his. I think his roster has the best minor league setup. Thanks, Cris. I just posted in a "Mod Request" thread I started regarding TotalMinors about the speed calculations and my formulas to rate them. I'm certainly glad to help advise in any way. I just don't have time for all the data entry this year. If I could get all the guys entered into the game and I wouldn't have to do it, then I could probably contribute something. But this way, I can at least help those who have the time to do rosters this year. GH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Germanno Posted March 14, 2005 Share Posted March 14, 2005 You guys are crazy with the slugging pct to figure power rating. It should be based on ratio of homeruns to hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkEnigma510 Posted March 14, 2005 Share Posted March 14, 2005 I was discussing this in another thread but was wondering whether everyone used one year stats, career stats, three year stats, projected stats? I know some fantasy baseball mags have projected stats for some of the bigger name players. Those might be worthwhile using when calculating stats. I just think going off one year isn't a good way to go since people can have off years but that doesnt meant that persons overall abilities have diminished. A question for paulw: do you make any adjustments when making stats for players of different eras or do you keep your formulas consistent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yukon2k Posted March 15, 2005 Share Posted March 15, 2005 what is the bottom line? what does everyone agree is the best formula system to use - paulw's, one post that said mvp uses ((bavg*100)-200)/2)+30.5, or another post that said the mvp formula was ((bavg*10000-300)/5)+30.5? which one of these do most of you favor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GForce22 Posted March 16, 2005 Share Posted March 16, 2005 I was discussing this in another thread but was wondering whether everyone used one year stats, career stats, three year stats, projected stats? I know some fantasy baseball mags have projected stats for some of the bigger name players. Those might be worthwhile using when calculating stats. I just think going off one year isn't a good way to go since people can have off years but that doesnt meant that persons overall abilities have diminished. A question for paulw: do you make any adjustments when making stats for players of different eras or do you keep your formulas consistent? I've always used 3 years of weighted stats as well as ZIPS projections. GH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbythepier Posted March 16, 2005 Share Posted March 16, 2005 GForce- i assume when you say "weighted" you are implying something like (general idea, not the #'s): 15%- ZIP projection 40%- previous year 30%- 2 years back 15%- 3 years back may i ask, since you have experience as a professional roster developer, are these things that were agreed upon by: 1) a "round table" of stat geeks 2) starting with an actual year in the past and working backwards to find the best regression statistic to fit the "weights" 3) to fit agreed upon ratings (i.e., make the data fit the theory, as my former professors would call it) 4) something totally different when you say some stats were weighted according to their stadium (location), how were you able to do this in the minors? did you have to it by league? are there splits available per stadium? when evaluating speed, the most effective (almost universally) method is home to first times. An professional article posted at: http://www.asep.org/jeponline/issue/Doc/Ju...4/ColemanV2.pdf "Some teams routinely time players during spring drills at 30 and 60 yard intervals. These data are useful,but the times are artficial. Players, who run good times in a speed test, don't always run as fast in games situations. Game times are more valid than speed tests because they tell coaches how fast a player is when it counts, in game situations." Scouts routinely keep records of these in-game times for nearly every player. does the public ever see any of these numbers? how about a company that spends million$ for licensing rights? just curious? picking your brain. thanks for the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stecropper Posted March 16, 2005 Share Posted March 16, 2005 Cris987, My apologies. The above: Slugging % > .650 = Rating of 15 Slugging % < .150 = Rating of 0 Should have been: Slugging % > .650 = Power Rating of 100 Slugging % < .150 = Power Rating of 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yukon2k Posted March 16, 2005 Share Posted March 16, 2005 stecropper and paulw. these are very good formulas. i know this has been asked in a previous post, but do either one of you have a formula for pitchers? i know it's hard to nail down a velocity or which pitch does what, but maybe something with the control could be formulized. - walks, k's, wp, whip, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbythepier Posted March 17, 2005 Share Posted March 17, 2005 stecropper, paulw and others- please accept my apologies for the 'left field' post on this page. it was meant for GForce's "Mod request" thread. oops. [two forums at once is evidently too much for me]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobniborg Posted March 17, 2005 Share Posted March 17, 2005 Guys, sometimes I think you are reinventing the wheel... in my opinion, the numbers have corresponding game effects. Take those effects for real life players and divide them into 100 categories (for 1-100 scale or 75 if scale is 25-100, etc). For example, if Power = Homeruns in the game then you take the top HR hitter (either total or HR/AB depending of if you like total numbers or averages). So if Bonds was the top with 59 home runs in X year. Then Bonds power = 100 and you scale down from there. Im sure Paul can figure out a formula for that So take the rating, figure out what "real life" stat to use and then scale. Just my opinion. Of course, this doesnt help with the harder stats like fielding ability and stuff, but in my opinion those are never accurate anyway. People said Cameron was the best center fielder and the boy sucked at Shea last year. In my opinion, these stats need a "round table" of unbiased guys keeping reins on everyone being rated 80+. But even then, if you made a list of best fielders from 1-XXX you could scale them. Vlad has the best arm in the outfield, so he gets 100, So and so is next, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yukon2k Posted March 23, 2005 Share Posted March 23, 2005 Nope ..... I was wrong ---- Plate Discipline was derived as follows: Ws / Ks * 100 + .5 = DF DF was a Discipline Factor then (( DF + Contact Rating ) / 2 )+ .5 * .1 = Plate Discipline when i use this formula for plate discipline, the numbers are a lot less than what's shown in mvpedit. is there some factor missing that mvpedit is using? as an example: a lot of times the player's plate discipline in mvpedit might show 8, but using the above forumula, i come up with a 5 or something like that. i tried editing about 10 players and all of them had way lower plate discipline numbers from the formula than what was listed. btw - i'm using spanish fly roster update version 4 w/laa & lad) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krawhitham Posted February 25, 2006 Share Posted February 25, 2006 when i use this formula for plate discipline, the numbers are a lot less than what's shown in mvpedit. is there some factor missing that mvpedit is using? as an example: a lot of times the player's plate discipline in mvpedit might show 8, but using the above forumula, i come up with a 5 or something like that. i tried editing about 10 players and all of them had way lower plate discipline numbers from the formula than what was listed. btw - i'm using spanish fly roster update version 4 w/laa & lad) it works, if you are using excel try this ((( DF + Contact Rating ) / 2 )+ .5) * .1 = Plate Discipline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krawhitham Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 1st off this is the first time I have ever used Excel, I hope I did not screw anything up By entering: ABs, battting average, slugging average, HRs, triples, doubles, strikeouts, & walks this spreedsheet will give you HR%, contact, power, & plate discipline for uses in updating rosters HR% is a straight mathematical formula (HR/ABs)*100 Contact uses 3 sources Poo Diddy's chart http://forums.operationsports.com/vBulleti...ad.php?t=124013 MVPedit's Formula [((.BAvg * 1000) - 200 ) / 2 ) + 30.5] PaulW's Formula [((350*Batting Average)-25)+((0.1-Strikeouts/At bats)*50)] These 3 sources are added together and divided by 3 Power Uses 4 Sources Poo Diddy's chart http://forums.operationsports.com/vBulleti...ad.php?t=124013 highlight_reel chart http://forums.operationsports.com/vBulleti...ad.php?t=160961 MVPedit's Formula [((.SLG% * 1000) - 300) / 5) + 30.5] PaulW's Formula [(30+327.5*ISO-665*ISO^2+488*ISO^3)-(2*(5-Hr%))] These 4 sources are added together and divided by 4 Plate discipline uses MVPedit's Formula Ws / Ks * 100 + .5 = DF (LHP contact + RHP contact)/2 = Contact Rating ((( DF + Contact Rating ) / 2 )+ .5) * .1 = Plate Discipline I want to thank myeggs. If he had not released his excel sheet using Poo Diddy's chart I would not have had any idea on how to start making this sheet. If anyone wants to play around with this spreadsheet and you do not know how to get around the passwords, PM me and I will give them to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traxis Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Nice work kraw. One question, though: How come the doubles and triples don't seem to effect anything? If I enter huge numbers or low numbers for those stats it doesn't effect the contact or power ratings at all. Is it supposed to be like that, or is it a bug? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krawhitham Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 file updated to stop ratings over 100 the doubles and triples is for highlight_reel power chart Power vs. RHP/LHP: The next formula I use (created by yours truly) is located here. For the Japanese League majors, subtract 9 For AAA, subtract 15 For AA, subtract 19 For High A, subtract 23 For Low A, subtract 28 For Rookie ball, subtract 35 For College, subtract 40 For High School, subtract 45 By the way, always pro-rate a players season to 500 at-bats*. Rating.....Homeruns 99...........49+ 98...........48 97...........47 96...........46 95...........45 94...........44 93...........43 92...........42 91...........41 90...........40 89...........39 88...........38 87...........37 86...........36 85...........35 84...........34 83...........33 82...........32 81...........31 80...........30 79...........29 78...........28 77...........27 76...........26 75...........25 74...........24 73...........23 72...........22 71...........21 70...........20 69...........19 68...........18 67...........17 66...........16 65...........15 64...........14 63...........13 62...........12 61...........11 60...........10 59...........9 (if he has 25+ E.B. hits**) 58...........9 (if he has less than 25 E.B. hits) 57...........8 (if he has 25+ E.B. hits) 56...........8 (if he has less than 25 E.B. hits) 55...........7 (if he has 25+ E.B. hits) 54...........7 (if he has less than 25 E.B. hits) 53...........6 (if he has 25+ E.B. hits) 52...........6 (if he has less than 25 E.B. hits) 51...........5 (if he has 25+ E.B. hits) 50...........5 (if he has less than 25 E.B. hits) 49...........4 (if he has 25+ E.B. hits) 48...........4 (if he has less than 25 E.B. hits) 47...........3 (if he has 25+ E.B. hits) 46...........3 (if he has less than 25 E.B. hits) 45...........2 (if he has 25+ E.B. hits) 44...........2 (if he has less than 25 E.B. hits) 43...........1 (if he has 25+ E.B. hits) 42...........1 (if he has less than 25 E.B. hits) 41...........0 (if he has 25+ E.B. hits) 40...........0 (if he has 21-24 E.B. hits) 39...........0 (if he has 15-20 E.B. hits) 38...........0 (if he has 6-14 E.B. hits) 37...........0 (if he has 5- E.B. hits) **An E.B. hit, according to me, is a double or a triple. Homeruns do not count as E.B. hits, at least for this chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kriegz Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Cool system there kraw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traxis Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 By the way, always pro-rate a players season to 500 at-bats*. Should you only do this when they have less than 500 ABs? Or always? I pro-rated Mike Lowells 3 years splits to 500 ABs and the difference was only 1 point in the power rating. I just want to know when it is necessary, because it takes longer to adjust it to 500 ABs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krawhitham Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 the spreed sheet does the pro rating for you power rating has 4 sources, one needs to be prorated and the spreed sheet does it for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skte1ement Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 very very intersting topic. anyone know a downloadable spread sheet program? I have one in the microsoft works package that i have but it will not open up xlr files. damn microsoft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eber Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 very very intersting topic. anyone know a downloadable spread sheet program? I have one in the microsoft works package that i have but it will not open up xlr files. damn microsoft. Try Open Office. I've never used it but I'm pretty sure it has functionality with Excel files. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krawhitham Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 any one have a power rating formula based odd of secA Secondary Average (A way to look at a player's extra bases gained, independent of Batting Average) (TB - H + BB + SB - CS) / AB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkEnigma510 Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 ZIPs projections can be obtained for free off www.baseballthinkfactory.com These can be useful when trying to create ratings for 2006 rosters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkEnigma510 Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 Also, ESPN Insider can be a useful resource for judging rating such as arm strength, baserunning skills, etc. There are free scouting reports available on ESPNInsider. Also, if you have a paid subscription yoou can get great info on pitchers pitch types alogn with rating for movement and control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krawhitham Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 ZIPs projections can be obtained for free off www.baseballthinkfactory.com These can be useful when trying to create ratings for 2006 rosters. I just looked at the 2005 ZIPs projections and I'm not too impressed but here is the new ones for 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkEnigma510 Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 I just looked at the 2005 ZIPs projections and I'm not too impressed but here is the new ones for 2006 I think PECOTA ratings are considered more accurate but you need a Baseball Prospectus subscription to get them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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