Generating Ratings For Classic Rosters

[DetroitStyle]

I was thinking of trying to do a classic roster again to for 2k12. I had some trouble with 2k11 mainly because my formulas to generate ratings just didn't mesh well. I figured I would write down exactly how I come up with what rating and maybe you all could throw some ideas my way. All of this may change depending on how many ratings 2K adds or removes. So this list is mainly from 2K11.

*NOTE*

Some ratings will be generated based on a 'formula' I draw from taking a r^2 value from the top 25 players at each statistical category and the lowest 25 at each category. For instance, Batting vs LHP: I will take a look at the top 25 players in batting avg. vs LHP (IRL) and create a scatter plot of the corresponding rating 2K gives them. If for example, Pujols, Cabrera, and Damon have the top 3 averages against LHP, and 2K gives them a rating of 98, 84, and 82 for that rating category, I will plot that on the graph and create a line of best fit. So when I use the term 'formula' that is how I will determine it. As well, If I want to get fancy I might make three different formulas representing three consecutive years and weight them as 75% year one, 15% year two, and 10% year three. This will allow the ratings to balance rather than be stuck on a straight or polynomial line. It should cause more scatter among ratings.

Thanks!

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Hitting

Batting vs LHP

2B vs LHP

3B vs LHP

HR vs LHP

Batting vs RHP

2B vs RHP

3B vs RHP

HR vs RHP

The above ratings will be the easiest to generate. I will take each category and input it into the formula from real life stats to generate a rating. So if someone hits 35 home runs against LHP pitchers, I'll put '35' into the formula and get the rating.

Eye vs LHP

Eye vs RHP

These are drawn from taking the walks formula and the corresponding batting average formula and weighting them 50%/50% to get the Eye rating. So for instance if the formula spits out a 100 rating for contact and a 25 rating for walks then the eye rating would be 63.

Bunting

Drag Bunting

Need help with this one as I'm not sure how best to come up with a bunt rating. Are there any stats that keep track of bunts?

Speed

Aggressiveness

Awareness

Acceleration

I know these will tied in with steal attempts but I'm not sure what else to throw in with them. Someone could have 20 steal attempts yet still be very fast. Awareness is difficult too, as Victor Martinez isn't very fast, but is a very smart base runner.

Tendencies

Bunting Tendency

Out by Strikeout

Out by Groundball

Base on Balls

Stealing

These will be very as I will simply take each stat and input it into the formula for that category. Adam Dunn for instance will have one of the highest strike out tendencies.

Fielding

Glove

Throw Accuracy

Arm Strength

Range

Anticipation

The fielding ratings are difficult as well. It's easy to determine a formula for glove based on fielding percentage but I'm at a loss for anticipation, range, and strength. Throw accuracy can also be determined by formula as stats keep track of fielding errors vs throwing errors.

As C

As 1B

As 2B

As 3B

As SS

As LF

As CF

As RF

Fairly simple, this will be determined by games played through three years.

Blocking the Plate

Blocking Pitches

Need help with this as I could get a stats based formula but it would be very generic for all catchers.

Game Calling

Not a clue, may have to be an arbitrary call.

Pitching

Pitch 1-5

Simply, the top 5 pitches they throw.

Movement

Control

No idea how to figure ratings for these

Speed

These numbers are widely available for all pitches so it shouldn't be hard at all.

Tendency

PitchFx will let me know how often a pitcher uses this pitch

Composure

Not a clue...

Stamina

Basically a formula based off of average innings pitched through 9 innings.

Pickoff

No idea...

Against LHB

Against RHB

BB Tendency

K Tendency

GB Tendency

Doubles LHB

Doubles RHB

Triples LHB

Triples RHB

HR LHB

HR RHB

These will be easy as they will all simply be stat based. Against LHB/RHB can be determined by average against, HR's by HR's against and so on. BB and K's will be determined by formula for most/least walks and K's through 9 innings.

General

Durability

Games played through 3 years

Clutch

No idea...

Peak Start

Peak End

Potential

This will all have to be subjective, and will only matter if you play franchise (which may not work at all with classic rosters)

[pena1]

Hey DS!

This is looking good, would like to help out more with formulas and what not. Have you ever been over to fangraphs?.

For a lot of the question marks, it should be able to help.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/

offense: covers speed, tendencies, etc

defense: covers UZR and RZR will help with range, arm strength can be pulled out of these stats as well

There is a TON of info on pitching there as well. One thing you can use for composure is LOB%. There is also a pitch F/x tool for calculation movement.

Ill pop back in with other stats soon!

[Qbrick808]

SUGGESTIONS AND IDEAS WHERE FEASABLE:

For the Batter’s Eye Rating, factor in Pitches Seen per AB, Balls/Strikes seen ratio and the Plate Discipline stats from fangraphs. The Plate Discipline section includes the following:

• O-Swing%: Percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.
  
• Z-Swing%: Percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone.
  
• Swing%: Overall percentage of pitches a batter swings at.
  
• O-Contact%: Percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with outside the strike zone when swinging the bat.
  
• Z-Contact%: Percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with inside the strike zone when swinging the bat.
  
• Contact%: Overall percentage of a batter makes contact with when swinging the bat.
  
• Zone%: Overall percentage of pitches a batter sees inside the strike zone.
  
• F-Strike% – Percentage of first pitch strikes.
  
• SwStr%: Percentage of total pitches a batter swings and misses on.
  

For the Bunting and Drag Bunting categories, look to fangraphs More Batted Ball section where they indicate how many Bunts and Bunt Hits a player had. Between that and Sac Bunts (SH), you might be able to come up with a formula factoring in success rate as well as frequency of attempts. Just to show how pronounced this can be, over the last ten seasons Juan Pierre has averaged 13 Sac Bunts, 20 Bunt Hits and 57 Bunts per season. During that same decade, Albert Pujols has a grand total of zero Sac Bunts, 2 Bunt Hits and 4 Bunts. Clearly, frequency needs to play a key role in these figures because guys who can’t bunt won’t be allowed to do so at a high rate like Juan Pierre, yet a guy like Pujols could be a great bunter, but he is simply not asked to use that skill very often. Then take a guy in the middle like Derek Jeter; during the same decade, his averages per season are 7 Sac Bunts, 4 Bunt Hits and 11 Bunts.

The Awareness category for base running is certainly difficult. The Speed Score (spd at fangraphs) takes into consideration Stolen Base Percentage, Frequency of Stolen Base Attempts, Percentage of Triples and Runs Scored Percentage. I think another number which would provide at least a little bit of relevant info if included with additional data would be Runs Scored minus Home Runs.

Fielding Range can make use of the Range Factor stat (RF). The equation is:

((Putouts + Assists) * 9) / Defensive Innings Played

For Catchers Blocking Pitches, you could determine the average number of Passed Balls throughout MLB per 9 innings caught, and compare the individual catcher’s number of Passed Balls to that with a bell curve scale running plus to minus.

Catchers’ Game Calling brings up a very controversial choice for you to make. The only real way to use the stats is to base everything on the performance of the pitchers while the given catcher is in the game. Of course, many people will argue that a catcher who is mediocre at game calling will have an extremely inaccurate rating if his pitching staff is full of elite arms.

For Pitchers’ Control per each pitch type, fangraphs identifies the percentage of strikes in parenthesis, so looking at Roy Oswalt’s 2011 numbers, he threw 10.5% Sliders, 84.2% of which were strikes, and he used the Curveball 9.8% of the time with 70.8% of those pitches going for strikes, so coming up with a formula there shouldn't be extremely difficult.

Pitchers’ Movement is much more difficult to evaluate from raw numbers, but one thing to consider using is the simple percentage of attempted swings which are missed by the hitters (SwStr%). You might also factor in the percentage of pitches in the strike zone which are not swung at.

For Pitching Composure, batters Left on Base is certainly one good stat to include in a formula. A vital component in this category – for relievers – is the percentage of Inherited Runs allowed (IR). You could also consider including performance during Late Inning Pressure Situations for this one.

If Pitching Stamina is to be truly accurate, you’d want to try and include a representation of the pitch count beyond a certain threshold (say, over 70 or 75 pitches) in games deemed close (likely three or fewer run margins).

For Pitchers’ Pickoffs, in addition to the singular stat itself, you could include Stolen Base attempts against per 9 innings. Additionally, although it might be a little complex, you’d really want to include a base value of the catcher’s ability to throw out base stealers so to offset exaggerated figures attributable to runners taking advantage of a catcher’s liability as opposed to that of the pitcher.

Fangraphs actually has a stat called Clutch, so that might be a good place to start there (it measures a player’s performance in high pressure situations to that same player’s overall performance). You could also make use of the Close and Late/Late Inning Pressure Situation stats.

[DetroitStyle]

thanks for the info!