Moneyball - the MOVEMENT....

[Kccitystar]

It appears to me that some GM's in MLB are going the route of Moneyball.

Moneyball, is a new movement in which a team's GM chooses and schools their players based on new statistics, pure numbers, that management believes are considered more important than traditional ones, and concentrated on gathering players to fit their new theories. Billy Beane, Oakland A's GM, paid attention to those numbers —with the second lowest payroll in baseball at his disposal he had to—and in Moneyball, that book records his astonishing experiment in finding and fielding a team that nobody else wanted.

I purchased the book Moneyball this weekend and I was blown away by the theories brought on by Oakland A's GM Billy Beane. A quintessential small-market club, the A's can't afford superstar talent when they have to compete in an open market for it. Michael Lewis, the author of this book, explained how the A's value players and use them in unconventional ways to maximize their value, all while seeking ways to minimize risk when they invest in a player and still get a good return on their investment.

I call it a movement because not only baseball teams are using the same approach as Beane and Bill James' theories, but other sports are doing the same thing. To use an example, take the Boston Red Sox.

Theo Epstein, Red Sox GM, contrary to what many may think, is by far the latest in what I consider using the Moneyball formula. In recent years, his goal was to rebuild the team by signing undervalued talent at the lowest price, knowing that certain stats are key to winning ballgames. Most of the players that you see on the field today, David Ortiz, Johnny Damon, etc. were at one point undervalued talent that nobody really wanted to sign, believe it or not.

Last year was something really remarkable to me in terms of how the Sox handled their poor defensive situation. Prior to the trading deadline, Epstein realized that the reason why the Sox were losing most of the time was due to the fact that their defense was by far one of the worst in the AL. So what can he do? He decides to trade away the best shortstop he's got, and in a couple of trades, lands two gold glovers. Doug Mientkiewicz, and Orlando Cabrera. Same with the closer situation. He ends his "closer by committee" campaign and decides to get Foulke as his closer.

In all, the next team following this movement is none other than the Toronto Blue Jays. When J.P. Ricciardi was appointed GM of the team, he told the owner basically, it's not how much money you spend, but how you spend it.

The CEO at the time, Paul Godfrey, says that, "Of all the people i'd talked to, J.P. was the only one with a business plan and the only one who told me, 'You're spending too much money'. He basically went through the lineup and said, 'These people are all replaceable by people you've never heard of.' And I said, 'You sure?' And he said, 'Look, if you can stand the heat in the media, I can make you cheaper and better. It'll take a couple of months to make you cheaper and a couple of years to make you better. But you'll be a lot better.'"

The first thing J.P. Ricciardi did after he took the job was hire Keith Law, a 28 year old Harvard grad who had never played baseball but wrote lots of articles for baseballprospectus.com. That was Beane's idea. Billy had told J.P. that, in order to find the fool at the poker table, "you need your Paul (DePodesta)." Paul DePodesta was the mastermind from the A's who helped pick out the players based on their statistics and brought along Nick Swisher and countless other players.

So, the Blue Jays actually have hope. I think I'm seeing another Oakland A's type of team, with a lower payroll and better team on the field. I wonder what the next team will be, the Mets? Nobody knows.

[pedrospecialk]

I read Moneyball a couple weeks after it came out, and it completely changed my philosophy on the game. It gets down to the bare basics of the game, proving that batting average means absolutely nothing and OBP (On-Base Percentage) is infinitely more telling of a player. OPS+, Runs Created, VORP, and ERA+ are the best measures of a player today (ERA+ and OPS+ are Park-Adjusted, and are, along with RC, available at www.baseball-reference.com player pages). VORP was created by and is baseballprospectus.com's most widely known stat. All of these stats are key in predicting to the best of our ability a player's stats and proving his true values. Another Bill James stat, Win Shares, is also a great stat.

No question about it, Moneyball was the most important book written about baseball in a very, very long time, and, depending on how the future looks, ever.

[ssmith7289]

You're right about Theo...Brian Sabean (SF), Paul Depodesta (LA), JP Ricciardi (TOR) are also believers of the faith. The godfather, Bill James is a special assistant to Theo. Billy Bean's thinking with Bostons 150 million dollar payroll = Red Sox Dynasty?? I'm thinking so.

[Kccitystar]

I read Moneyball a couple weeks after it came out, and it completely changed my philosophy on the game. It gets down to the bare basics of the game, proving that batting average means absolutely nothing and OBP (On-Base Percentage) is infinitely more telling of a player. OPS+, Runs Created, VORP, and ERA+ are the best measures of a player today (ERA+ and OPS+ are Park-Adjusted, and are, along with RC, available at www.baseball-reference.com player pages). VORP was created by and is baseballprospectus.com's most widely known stat. All of these stats are key in predicting to the best of our ability a player's stats and proving his true values. Another Bill James stat, Win Shares, is also a great stat.

No question about it, Moneyball was the most important book written about baseball in a very, very long time, and, depending on how the future looks, ever.

Yeah, Moneyball really introduced me to a more in depth look at baseball economics and how the financial system in MLB is flawed...but Beane has found a loophole, and more teams are using his concepts...

As for the Bill James remark, John Henry brought him along...and he also stated, and I quote, "Why did it take so long for somebody to sign this guy?"

[pedrospecialk]

You're right about Theo...Brian Sabean (SF), Paul Depodesta (LA), JP Ricciardi (TOR) are also believers of the faith. The godfather, Bill James is a special assistant to Theo. Billy Bean's thinking with Bostons 150 million dollar payroll = Red Sox Dynasty?? I'm thinking so.

I'm not so sure. Billy Beane is a great GM, probably better than Theo, but believe me. The second he wins anything with boston, don't you think other GMs (Jim Bowden, Crazy Omar, Bill Bavasi) are going to warm to this idea that your team can win if you play it like so? The fact that Beane has helped put all of this into action by allowing Michael Lewis into his office to begin with has put him at a severe disadvantage. Believe me, players can only be undervalued to a certain point and quantity.

[BoSoxRule]

The Red Sox also have Voros McCracken.

Bill James, Voros McCracken, AND Theo Epstein. Not bad.

And I am not sure how good Win Shares is as a stat. I prefer WARP, VORP, and other stats.

[Kriegz]

I'm not trying to be a home-town guy but Mark Shapiro has done an amazing job rebuilding the Indians IMO, which seemed like the laughing stock of the leauge not to long ago

[pedrospecialk]

Agreed, Shapiro has really shined as well. He's got a soon-to-be perennial MVP candidate in Hafner, who put up production numbers that bested Sheffield in 85% of the PAs (God, I love that stat :mrgreen: ), not to mention the best bullpen in the AL (until you get to the closer) and one of the better rotations (Sabathia, Lee, Millwood, Westbrook, Davis) in the league. He's got the best catcher in the game in Martinez, a great 2B tandem in Belliard/Cora, and a fresh-off-the-DL Aaron Boone.

All this in one of the smallest payrolls in the game. He deserves a lot of praise.

[BoSoxRule]

I wouldn't call Victor Martinez the best catcher in the game. He's great, but he's still behind Ivan Rodriguez. If Mauer can stay healthy, he's the best in the game.

[pedrospecialk]

I don't know if he's behind Pudge anymore. He's getting better, while Pudge is on the way down (About Mauer, I think they're almost equals. That should be a great divisional battle to watch for years, not quite Munson/Fisk, but of that sort). After checking out their stats, I guess Pudge is still better by a bit.

[BoSoxRule]

Pudge might still not be what he was in his prime, but he still had a 8.2 WARP to Victor's 6.8. He beat him in VORP 63.1 to 47.1, and EQA .316 to .299.

PECOTA does project them to be equal this year, though.

[qpontiac]

You're right about Theo...Brian Sabean (SF), Paul Depodesta (LA), JP Ricciardi (TOR) are also believers of the faith. The godfather, Bill James is a special assistant to Theo. Billy Bean's thinking with Bostons 150 million dollar payroll = Red Sox Dynasty?? I'm thinking so.

Great book indeed....I loved the chapter on Bradford...

With regards to Sabean, he actually isn't a big Moneyball guy, as he really places a huge emphasis on scouting and physical projections....Also, Sabean is not a believer in the draft, as is evident in all of the free agent pickups he gets that actually forfeit his draft picks (i.e the Michael Tucker signing last year actually forfeited the Giants 1st Round Pick to the Royals 8O)....

I'm not knocking Sabean, even if he has produced a team of players that don't have to worry about Social Security running out before it's time for them to collect...

Also, with regards to DePodesta, who really was the brain trust in the A's organization...It will be very interesting to see what he does with the Dodgers in his second year, because I believe that he has made some very questionable moves this offseason, that were very non-Moneyball like (signing Derrick Lowe to a huge deal, JD Drew, Jeff Kent...

The question I ask those of you who have read the book is, do you think Moneyball can work with a team that has a lot of resources? Cuz with the case of DePodesta, it seems like now that he has money to burn, he is doing just that.

[APR]

Agreed, Shapiro has really shined as well. He's got a soon-to-be perennial MVP candidate in Hafner, who put up production numbers that bested Sheffield in 85% of the PAs (God, I love that stat :mrgreen: ), not to mention the best bullpen in the AL (until you get to the closer) and one of the better rotations (Sabathia, Lee, Millwood, Westbrook, Davis) in the league. He's got the best catcher in the game in Martinez, a great 2B tandem in Belliard/Cora, and a fresh-off-the-DL Aaron Boone.

All this in one of the smallest payrolls in the game. He deserves a lot of praise.

The best bullpen in the AL???

[qpontiac]

Probably the GM that doesn't get enough praise is homeboy in Minnesota...For a team that MLB was threatening to contract a few years back, they have won 3 straight AL Centrals, and don't appear to be slowing down at all

[BoSoxRule]

Minnesota, Oakland, or Anaheim has the best bullpen in the AL

[ssmith7289]

If Mantei stays healthy I'm ready to give that title to the Sox

[pedrospecialk]

Cleveland: Riske, Betancourt, Wickman, Howry, Sauerbeck, Rhodes, Bartosh. <-- Save closer (which I stated previously, I believe), Best in the league. Riske, Rhodes, Betancourt? That's 3 amazing setup men.

Oakland: Calero, Dotel, Street, Bradford, Rincon, Yabu, Harrikala, Cruz. <--Easily the most electric pen. However, I'm not sure if Street is all he's hyped up to be (this year at least), Dotel could get dealt, Calero, Bradford, and Cruz are all great, but I don't think this is the best pen.

Minnesota: Nathan, Romero, Durbin, Crain, Rincon, Balfour. <-- This is the best 'pen in baseball in '06, hands down. In '05, I'm still giving the edge to Cleveland.

Anaheim: K-Rod, Donnelly, Shields, Yan, Gregg, Bootcheck <-- certianly not the best.

Boston: Foulke, Halama, Timlin, Embree, Mantei, Neal. <-- certainly not the best.

[BoSoxRule]

Oakland definitley has the edge right there. I really can't put Cleveland ahead of Minnesota or Anaheim.

[ssmith7289]

No freakin way

[WhoisKarimGarcia]

Cleveland: Riske, Betancourt, Wickman, Howry, Sauerbeck, Rhodes, Bartosh. <-- Save closer (which I stated previously, I believe), Best in the league. Riske, Rhodes, Betancourt? That's 3 amazing setup men.

Oakland: Calero, Dotel, Street, Bradford, Rincon, Yabu, Harrikala, Cruz. <--Easily the most electric pen. However, I'm not sure if Street is all he's hyped up to be (this year at least), Dotel could get dealt, Calero, Bradford, and Cruz are all great, but I don't think this is the best pen.

Minnesota: Nathan, Romero, Durbin, Crain, Rincon, Balfour. <-- This is the best 'pen in baseball in '06, hands down. In '05, I'm still giving the edge to Cleveland.

Anaheim: K-Rod, Donnelly, Shields, Yan, Gregg, Bootcheck <-- certianly not the best.

Boston: Foulke, Halama, Timlin, Embree, Mantei, Neal. <-- certainly not the best.

Not to be biased but I think the Yankees(Mo,Gordon,Quantrill,Felix Rodriguez,Stanton and Karsay)should be mentioned.They have the best closer(A verrrrry close second is Gagne.) in the game along with a lights out set up man and a bunch of dominant middle relievers.

[ssmith7289]

Thats not biased your 100% right...although I think Quantrill is done after his workload last year, Gordon can handle it no problem. Rivera/Gordon is a lights out combo that seemingly just the BoSox can rough up

[Shoeless Bob]

I read that book as well. It was very informative. I used the same ideas when playing fantasy baseball games. One year (about three years ago) I came 10th in the CNNSI Fantasy baseball contest and 3rd in the Toronto Star one. My friend writes a column at CNNSI and another friend works for the Padres. It's a philosophy that says "what have you done for me lately?" It values on-base percentage and other "non-sexy" stats over the long ball. It's harder to gauge pitching statistics because pitchers are more unpredictable and break down more often. Like Epstien did with the BoSox last year, you need to identify weaknesses on the fly and adapt. Play with baseball stats like you are in the stockmarket. Buy low, sell high. Identify players that have gone through struggles and get ready for them to produce around the age of 26 (28 for catchers). Riccardi was on the right track with the Blue Jays, but they suffered injuries to all key players last year. He made some good moves this off-season and has a plan. He also has $20 Million more at his disposal (good on the Blue Jays) and is not burdened with the huge contract of Carlos Delgado. As well, the players that he has drafted are now making a push for big league jobs. Until now, his upper level prospects were still Gord Ash's.